Tonight we will jump right into it, we have a very strong cold front currently draped over Northern Upstate NY through the Great Lakes with widespread storms along it, this front and disturbance will drop South and East .
Now the current line of storms will dissipate over night as instability is lost, but tomorrow afternoon as the front drops south it will run into a very hot, humid , and unstable air mass ( tomorrow highs will be in the 90-98 range with dew points in the low to mid 70s), heat indexes again between 100-105, and heat advisories are in effect for tomorrow
Storm Prediction Center Forecast
Areas in the red are where severe weather is most likely tomorrow
Storms will refire starting tomorrow afternoon and I expect widespread strong to severe thunderstorms, with the biggest threats being very heavy rain and strong winds which could exceed 60 mph! Hail will also be possible although I do not think it will be too much of a concern With dew points in the 70s and PWATTS around 2 inches, very heavy rainfall is likely and these storms will be slow-moving so we have potential for training, if this happens flash flooding will be an issue. Timing of this event will be between 2-4 pm for NW sections to 8-10 pm for SE sections
Now we have to watch and see where the front will stall out, it looks like i will stall in the vicinity of the area so another wave of rain and thunderstorms will be possibly Thursday into Friday, the best shot for this will be over southern Sections as Canadian high pressure tries to force the front south as well as bring dry air into northern areas
Late Thursday into Friday
Overall through this event I expect a widespread 0.50-2.oo inches of rain,and I will be watching to see where the front stalls and that second wave will track because in the areas that get impacted by that wave could easily exceed 3 inches through the event, the best shot as of now for that is Southern PA through Southern NJ and through the Delmarva.
As you can see above some areas could exceed 3 to even 4 inches through Saturday so I will be keeping a close eye on this developing storm system through the next few days!!