The cold front that came through yesterday with strong to severe storms from East PA through the New York City metro, is now stalled out over Northern NJ drapped though Central PA and into the Midwest
An area of low pressure is developing along this front, leading to a developing area of moderate to heavy rainfall, this low pressure will ride east across PA then off of southern NJ through Friday, so with that the rain will also come east bound. The low pressure will then turn NE and ride along the coast. For the day today I expect cloudy skies, maybe some peaks of sun NYC northward with a some isolated to scattered showers with the front in the vicinity but by no means a wash out.
Showers will become widespread through the night and become steady by Friday morning, with embedded storms possible by afternoon, the heaviest rain is expected over Eastern PA through NE NJ WITH 0.75-1.50 inches NE NJ, locally up to 2 inches in storms, and a general 1.5-2.5 inches over eastern PA, and NE PA through Central PA , locally up to 3 inches of rain expected. The rest of the forecast area from Central NJ south can expect
This blob of rain will move East-Southeast, but will weaken while moving towards NYC, thus the reason why the heaviest rain is expected over PA through NW NJ
Through Friday afternoon rain continues to move fill in and become heavy at time, especially from East PA through Northern NJ
And finally Friday night through early Saturday AM the rain slowly exits, now I think this model is overdoing in sowing widespread amounts of 3-5 inches, I wouldn’t be surprised to se local areas exceed 3 inches but 5 inches is over doing it I believe although I will keep an eye on this threat as that would lead to big flooding potential and we will have to see the exact track because the swath of heavy rain will be pretty narrow so we will have to see if this band shifts north or south.