This morning we have a powerful area of low pressure tracking through southern Canada, which is dropping a strong cold front south that extends from lake Ontario through western PA , this will make for rather interesting weather later this afternoon and tonight
We can see the storm system pretty clearly on radar and satellite, all that heavy rain over western PA will come east and northeast , and will impact the area after 5 pm this afternoon and last through later tonight.
But ahead of the front I expect scattered storms as seen in eastern PA to be a threat through the day.
We had plenty of sun his morning to fuel up the atmosphere and make it very unstable with moderate shear and high cape values of 2000+, this should ead to scattered storms this afternoon, some could be strong to severe. I am not all that impressed with a widespread outbreak as we have a lot of loud cover around now but I do expect that some storms will be severe with threats being large hail, strong winds and VERY heavy rain fall with all the hot humid air still in place, highs today in the mid to upper 80s with high humidity and heat indexes in the mid to upper 90s.
Flash Flood watches issued
We expect several rounds of showers and thunderstorms today through tonight, this cold front is slo moving so the threat for training thunderstorms ( which are thunderstorms that ride over the same areas over and over again, usually from SW to NE ). Some areas will see A LOT of rainfall , possibly in excess of 2 inches for many through tomorrow morning and so the National Weather Service has issued FLASH FLOOD WATCHES
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING…
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR
* PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT…NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK…INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS…IN
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT…NORTHERN FAIRFIELD…NORTHERN NEW HAVEN
AND SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD. IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY…EASTERN
BERGEN…EASTERN ESSEX…EASTERN PASSAIC…EASTERN UNION…
HUDSON…WESTERN BERGEN…WESTERN ESSEX…WESTERN PASSAIC AND
WESTERN UNION. IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK…BRONX…KINGS
(BROOKLYN)…NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)…NORTHERN NASSAU…NORTHERN
(STATEN ISLAND)…ROCKLAND…SOUTHERN NASSAU…SOUTHERN QUEENS
AND SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER.
* THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
* THIS AFTERNOON…WELL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM…ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRESENT A
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THREAT.
* THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN NEAR THE REGION LATE TODAY BEFORE
SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS THIS
FRONT INTERACTS WITH A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION…SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS…WITH RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE. THESE TYPE OF RAINFALL RATES RESULT IN
URBAN…POOR DRAINAGE…AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. THERE IS ALSO
POTENTIAL THAT INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORMS COULD TRAIN OVER THE
SAME AREAS…RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING.
* THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO END FROM WEST TO
EAST MONDAY MORNING AS THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY MOVES EAST OF THE
The good news out of this is that for one we need rainfall as departures are 6-10 inches below normal for the year but number 2 is that this is the kind of system needed to break th pattern and all the extreme heat lately, and that’s exactly what I expect as conditions become more comfortable through the week next week, with highs in the mid 80s with low humidity expected and lows in the upper 50s interior to mid to upper 60s along the coast, another cold front will come through late in the week enforcing another and possibly cooler Canadian air mass over the Northeast US by next weekend