We have Invest 94 L out in the tropical Atlantic, and most model guidance aims it somewhere at the US, AREAS BETWEEN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO, AND MAINE HAVE TO WATCH THIS STORM!
The time frame we have to watch for this storm (For the US ) is between August 26th and September 3rd so still plenty of time to watch it
The way I see it , there are 4 possibilities ( I know it’s a lot , but tons of uncertainty still) 2 of which im putting more emphasis on
Track 1 – The storm intensifies quickly and or gets picked up by an incoming trough, picks up the steering currents from the Atlantic ridge and gets steered out to see harmlessly, possible but unlikely as I think the Atlantic ridge will be big enough to push it west far enough to threaten the US
Track 2- The storm intensifies slowly and steadily, misses the trough, and picks up on the steering currents close to the east coast and rides the coast, posing a threat from Georgia to Maine, yes something similar to IRENE is possible, im putting more emphasis on this track
Track 3 – The storm intensifies slowly, misses the trough, misses the steering currents of the ridge until its very close to the US coast, this would pose a threat to Florida and the SE coast, then could eventually be kicked out by another incoming trough , the other track im putting more emphasis on
Track 4 – The storm remains weak misses the trogh and steering currents, crosses the Island Chains and could pose a threat to Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico
Here are the 12z GFS ensembles showing a potential track for what could be tropical Storm or Hurricane Issac, yes the “I” storm again! Pretty scary agreement , and this is what has been the case over the past few days. The operational GFS shows more of a track 3 situation, the Euro shows a track 4 situation but its ensembles disagree. Of course ten you have the Canadian model and ensembles which were out to sea (track 1) but have now shifted west to a storm riding the east coast