Today , our invest 94 L from yesterday first got upgraded to a tropical depression in the morning and now as of 5 pm is upgraded to tropical storm Issac, so clearly a lot of intensification has occurred over the past 12-24 hours as it entered a very favorable environment
Here is our storm , it really blew up today ad is heading west-northwest towards the Leeward Islands. it’s mainly moving due west but there has been some noticeable jogs to the NW through the day, these jogs can make a huge difference
Some of my latest thoughts:
Unfortunately there is s A LOT of uncertainty still but I was able to eliminate 1 of the 4 tracks from yesterday, and that track was the Out to sea one ,which would have left the US alone. One thing that did occur today was most models shifted west, which makes sense given the very strong Bermuda High , I do expect a landfalling tropical system somewhere in the US between August 28th and September 1 st and chances are that storm will be a strong tropical storm or hurricane as the environment is just very favorable for development through much of the Atlantic Basin, very rare considering we have an establishing El Nino.
The track that goes along the east coast is now the farthest east track I think will happen, the one that goes through the Yucatan and potentially through the Gulf og Mexico is the farthest west I think this will go,I took a shot at a first forecast track and that is the dotted line in the middle.
From the data I saw today a lot of things have to go right for this to come up the coast, and it wont take much for it to move west-northwest through the Islands and into the Gulf of Mexico
The weakness in the ridge that would allow the storm to ride the east coast is awfully small, so the storm will have to intensify pretty quickly and pick up on the weakness very quickly to take that turn NNW and eventually due North up the east coast, it’s still very well a possibility but im putting more weight onto a storm track into the eastern Gulf of Mexico , either along or just west of Florida’s west coast possibly slamming into the eastern Gulf Coast as a nasty storm
Below are the chances I put on each track as of now, this will chang as the storm is still 1 week away
Track 1 (Up the east coast)- 30%
Track 2 (Forecast track)- 55%
Track 3 (Through the Yucatan)- 15%
That is all I got for you tonight, my advice remains the same, anyone from New Orleans to Southern New England should watch this VERY closely!