Tonight Issac is a 45 mph Tropical storm, it did not strengthen much today, the rule is a weak storm usually takes the southern route, a strong storm takes the northern route as a strong storm picks up on upper level steering better from the Bermuda high and therefore the NWS has shifted a track more west, similar to mine.
Another thing is , look how strong the Bermuda high is! That trough coming off the SE COAST will cause a weakness to develop in this ridge, if Issac can strengthen, it can still pick up on that weakness and head up Florida’s east coast and towards the SE US ,however I expect it to remain on the weaker side as I expect it to cross Hispaniola, Dominican Republican and eventually possibly Cuba which as we all know they have VERY BIG mountains which should keep the storm weak and on more of a WNW track into the eastern gulf of Mexico instead of NNW up the east coast.
If it can somehow miss Hispaniola an Dominican Republican areas then it will be able to strengthen and thus a better chance of an east coast storm but I don’t see that happening
As you can see I did not change my forecast track ( the dotted line) , I continue to advertise the east coast threat and also a farther south track , I did shift around some percentages, In my opinion the West coast of Florida and Panhandle of Florida really have to watch this as the Gulf is VERY WARM and if it tracks that way RAPID INTENSIFACATION IS POSSIBLE!
The european model makes a Louisiana landfall, I cannot discount it but I think its pretty unlikely at this time,as it is a western outlier and there’s also ridging over the SW US that should keep it from getting that far west.
Yucatan Track- Dropped from 15% to 10%
Eastern Gulf Track ( forecast track) – Raised from 55% to 60%
East Coast Track- Remains at 30%
Even on this track, the Southeastern US could see quite a rain event and a flooding event will be possible before eventually either dissipating over land or getting kicked out to sea by a trough.
THE THREAT FOR EFFECTS FROM THIS STORM ARE DECREASING FOR THE FORECAST AREA, OF NYC, NEW JERSEY, PHILADELPHIA THROUGH LONG ISLAND AND NE PA. IF THE STORM DOES TRACK UP THE EAST COAST IT WILL PROBABLY BE KICKED OUT BY AN INCOMING TROUGH BEFORE HITTING THE AREA. STILL KEEP AN EYE OUT THOUGH
More updates to come tomorrow and the coming days as models start to get better data and a better idea of what may or may not happen with Issac, again the Gulf coast to te northern Mid Atlantic have to keep an eye on this storm, my area of concern is from Central Florida to the Panhandle and possibly to SE Mississippi depending on size of the storm.