Tonight tropical storm Issac is approaching hurricane strength, although it probably wont get there quite yet as it is about to run into some land
We can see it’s about to interact with Hati , Hispaniola and eventually Cuba, which have very high mountains so I expect Issac to weaken down to a 50-60 mph tropical storm by te time it crosses these landmasses, general movement is NW right now. I expect this NW movement to continue and fr Issac to re-emerge just SW of the Florida Peninsula, possibly landfalling in the Keys as a tropical storm. From there I expect a turn more towards the NNW and a landfall as a category 2 hurricane between Panama City Florida and Mobile Alabama.
The trough that could have (still a slight chance it could) bought the storm up the eastern seaboard is dropping south towards the storm and that’s why Issac turned from moving from West to Northwest direction, however this trough is weakening and I fully expect this storm to go into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, probably by Monday. I expect the storm to strengthen over the warm Gulf of Mexico waters , not anything explosive and rapid as there will be some shear but steady intensification to lead to a hurricane of 85-95 mph winds to make landfall in the western Florida Panhandle .
Forecast Track and Uncertainty Cone
The dotted line is my forecast track for the this storm, no changes since Monday night besides shrinking the cone of uncertainty to the Gulf of Mexico. Some thing to keep in mind , if the trough can keep its strength , the storm has a chance of riding right into the Florida mainland or perhaps just east , putting the SE US at risk but I think those chances are low enough to not even advertise at this time
Again as of now I expect a landfall in the western Panhandle of Florida to SE Alabama, but the whole state of Florida to New Orleans should stay tuned because for one this storm is big and will have far-reaching impacts and number 2 , for any shifts in storm track .
So please if you live from Florida to New Orleans start coming up with a hurricane plan, evacuation plan and get ready to take action and please stay safe, most importantly stay tuned to here and any weather outlets to monitor any track changes for this system.
Impact time currently ranges from late Sunday night/ Monday morning for the Florida Keys , spreading NNW Monday afternoon through Tuesday night, timing is due to change.
Below is a link to the National Hurricane Center, which is the best website to really keep track of this storm