Isaac is now a strong tropical storm, borderline hurricane with 70 mph winds and is well west of Florida’s west coast, moving NW at 12 mph right towards the Gulf Coast, and will bring life threatening and dangerous impacts from SW Louisiana to the western Panhandle of Florida.
This is from the latest National Hurricane Center Update, they expect it to become a hurricane by later tonight than intensify moving in to a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds, I don’t see it getting that strong just based on the fact that there’s a lot of dry air being entrained into the storm, I expect a strong Category 1 to perhaps borderline Category 2 hurricane around 85-95 mph winds
We can see the storm is very lopsided, it really does not look that good , and I think I even may be to strong with my prediction but we shall see, there’s a lot of dry air in the east and NE quadrant as of now and I really don’t see that ending
Here is my official and final track for Isaac
I had to shift about 150-200 miles west of my original track as the Bermuda high/ Atlantic Ridge was strong enough to push this even farther west , it has finally made the turn NW though. I expect a minimal hurricane by the 2 am update from the National Hurricane Center, then slow and steady intensification toa strong Category 1 to maybe borderline Category 2 with generally 85-95 mph winds, im leaning more towards 85-90 but if Issac can get this dry air out of him he will be able to intensify fast so im leaving some room for that to happen.
Remember even if it is “only a category 1 hurricane” it will still be very dangerous, if you remember Irene last year, she was only a Category 1 and devastated much of NJ , NYC, LI through the NE US
The key with Isacc is that it is going to SLOW DOWN approaching the coast, and could practically stall for a while, rain bands will start moving in late tonight from the southeast
Here is the Impact map
Yellow area- Moderate impacts expected, inland flooding is the biggest threat with a lot of rain , a general 4-8 + inches of rain expected, tropical storm force wind gusts likely general sustained winds 25-40 mph
Red area- MAJOR impacts expected, flooding likely with a general 9-14+ inches of rain, locally 15-18 inches of rain, hurricane force gusts likely (up to 90 mph) , sustained winds of 55-70 mph likely, hurricane winds could be sustained as the center comes on shore tomorrow night (75-85 mph), storm surge on wither side of the black area of 3-6 ft expected. MAJOR FLOODING LIKELEY, WIND DAMAGE LIKELEY, TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE
Black area- Basically same impacts as red areas BUT higher storm surge expected, as much as 7-10 foot storm surge, possibly up to 12 , and rainfall could be locally higher, 10-15 inches expected SOME AREAS COULD EXCEED 20 INCHES! , tropical storm winds certain, hurricane winds certain , sustained winds of 55-70 mph gusts to 90 possible, with the center of the storm sustained winds of 75-85 mph will be possible , gusts to 90 will be possible, again tomorrow night through early Wednesday. MAJOR FLOODING EXPECTED, WIND DAMAGE EXPECTED, TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SO please if you live within the red and black areas if you’re not prepared PREPARE NOW for a category 2 hurricane, prepare for the worst , hope for the best, be smart, get all preparations ready TONIGHT , evacuate if told to do so, board up windows , whatever it takes to STAY SAFE , so to my fellow friends of Louisiana , Alabama , Mississippi and Florida, best of luck to you , please stay safe and be smart.