Today is the last day of meteorological summer (June 1st – September 1st) as everyone goes back to work and school. Its been rather nice and fall like at times the last 10 days but mother nature wants to throw one more hot spell at us before Autumn begins to take over
An area of high pressure has moved off the east coast, leading to a developing SW flow with increasing heat and humidity today. This heat spell will b brief and only last about 48 hours before the ridge collapses and a weak cold front comes through tomorrow night
Today will be the hottest day with highs in the mid 80s over NE PA to upper 80s to low 90s elsewhere, humidity will make it fell like lower to mid 90s, and a stiff SW breeze tonight we will remain under clear skies , continued humid conditions with lows in the mid 60s to low 70s. This humidity will be nothing like what we saw in July, nothing oppressive at all just enough to make it noticeable
Saturday while still warm and humid, will be cooler than today as again the ridge already begins to break down and temperatures aloft begin to fall, highs in the low 80s over NE PA to mid to upper 80s elsewhere, again, somewhat high humidity but certainly not anything oppressive. A weak and dry cold front will come through tomorrow night, leading to a fairly rapid drop in temperatures, with lows in the mid to upper 50s over NE PA to lower to mid 6os elsewhere with dropping humidity
By Sunday, we will return to the “normal” regime we have been in and will go down to what would be expected in early September, with highs in the mid 70s NE PA to upper 70s and low 80s elsewhere with low humidity and lows in the low 50s interior to upper 50s to low 60s elsewhere
For Labor day,we will begin to enter a pretty unsettled weather pattern , with increasing clouds, slightly increasing humidity and highs in the mid 70s to low 80s, some scattered showers and storms moving into western sections as a slow-moving cold front and th remnants of Isaac come east bound. And that will be the theme through much of next week, a very slow-moving cold front will interact with leftover moisture from Isaac and lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms each day from Monday through Thursday
Here we are Tuesday, with the cold front coming east and scattered showers and storms moving in
Wednesday, the same theme continues, while I stress the word SCATTERED here, any showers and storms will be capable of producing very heavy downpours as again some tropical moisture gets entrained into this frontal system.
And Thursday. nothing really changes. one thing tat does catch my eye is a MASSIVE trough dropping into the Midwest, so a secondary cold front should come through late next week/weekend and we could very well see our first TRUE taste of fall .
I must note, if this trough is slower and weaker than modeled and gets stuck over the Midwest for a while , the east coast may be open to a tropical system , we can see Leslie in the extreme eastern side of the frame, chances are with this trough it will curve out to sea, however the trend this summer is for cold fronts and troughs to come through much slower than expected so this will be something to watch going into next week.
Other than that, I expect a big cool down sometime between next weekend and the following week (September 6th- September 12th time period)
8-14 day SPC outlook