Northern NJ Weather authority is back up and running! The lack of updates over the past 6 days was due to a long-lasting illness ,which I hope has finally gone away.
Today I have quite a bit to talk about as we enter a more active weather pattern along with a much cooler one, and fall like weather is and will continue to take over the eastern half of the nation
The next several days will remain pretty quiet and seasonably cool, with highs Saturday, Sunday and Monday in the upper 60s over NE PA to mid to upper 70s along the coastal areas with lows in the lower to mid 40s over NE PA to mid 50s along the coast. So overall a nice weekend is on tap , basically a typical September weekend, maybe a tad cooler than you would expect as massive Canadian high pressure takes hold
The only fly in the ointment, is a weak cold front will come through late tonight into tomorrow morning so a brief isolated shower and clouds will be possible for Saturday AM
The real interesting weather will hold off until Tuesday morning, then things go down hill as a long lasting rainstorm may be in the makings
2 things are expected to occur over the next 3 days that will lead to a heavy rainfall event by Tuesday. That blob of moisture in the Gulf Of Mexico will be a big player.
A deep trough and cold front will dive SE into the US over the next 48 hours, this trough will dig down and pick up the disturbance over the Gulf Of Mexico and bring it NNE up the eastern seaboard, meanwhile the cold front will be slow-moving due to the continuing domination of a ridge over the Atlantic
So Monday into Tuesday our winds will change to the SSE ahead of the cold front and behind the atlantic ridge, with moisture streaming in from the South and increasing clouds and humidity. The disturbance will ride north and rain will begin to spread in by Tuesday morning, becoming steadier and heavier, leading to a potential washout into Wednesday morning before clearing out
By Tuesday afternoon the rain becomes heavier and steady
The exact track of this disturbance and speed of the cold front will determine who gets the heaviest rainfall , but overall I expect a widespread 1-3 inches of rainfall right now, and will pinpoint the location of heaviest rainfall in the next few days.
After this front comes through, a COOL EAST, WARM WEST pattern is expected to continue ,as a bug ridge continues to dominate the western US leading to a trough in the east, and now that we are heading into fall, the pattern is becoming more amped up as the polar jet stream begins to drift south and we have an establishing sub tropical jet stream with El Nino
This all tells me that the next few weeks will feature increased Canadian air masses, and increasingly stormy conditions
As seen above, a massive trough is expected to take hold of much of the east, but notice, due to the atlantic ridge, the center of the trough and thus coldest readings will remain west of us over the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest, and we will have occasional warm ups and storm systems in the east on the eastern flank of this trough.
I expect this to continue through the next few weeks, with average to slightly below average temperatures in our neck of the woods, with occasional but overall short-lived big cool downs to below average levels and a occasioanl burst of warmth and humidity ahead of cold fronts and storm systems. In the Great Lakes and Midwest regions, it could become winter like at times.