We are going to have nice, cool, dry fall like weather the next few days , with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s and lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s throughout the area tonight through Monday, however a cold front is over the Midwest slowly coming east and an area of low pressure is forming in the Gulf of Mexico , these 2 will combine and the low will come NE up the Appalachians , impacting the area with a moderate to heavy rain storm Tuesday through early Wednesday.
There isn’t much yet, but we see moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is starting to stream north along the cold front, and showers and storms forming along the Gulf coast as an area pressure develops. I expect showers and thunderstorms to develop and expand over te SE US over the next 48 hours.
Here is what I expect going Tuesday through Wednesday, an intensifying low pressure system moving up the eastern sea board , and along the Appalachians through PA and into Upstate NY . Showers and storms will begin to move NE into the area by Tuesday morning and continue through the day, this will be with the cold front.
The actual low pressure system and storm will come NE with a shield of steady moderate to heavy rainfall Tuesday evening and night.
Above the storm track I expect , and the heaviest rain will fall along the storm track, which will be over PA into Upstate NY where I expect a widespread 1.5-3 inches with locally more . NJ and NYC will be east of the storm track so with the actual low pressure, the precipitation will be more showery in coverage but also being on the warm moist side of the storm, thunderstorms will be more likely with very heavy rain in any storms.
With te track of the low, the lightest rain amounts will be over SE NJ through LI where moe of a moderate rain event with 0.50-1.00 expected, locally higher amounts, the I95 corridor from NYC-Phily and NJ should see a heavy rainfall event with a widespread 1-1.50 inches , locally 2 inches and once again I expect the heaviest rain to be in PA points NE with a widespread 1.5-3 inches as of now. This is much-needed rainfall but some areas could see too much too quick, so isolated flooding will be possible. Also with this storm, strong winds out of the SSE will be possible, with winds 20-30 mph and gusts even higher possible as the storm intensifies coming north.
I will update in the next few days with updated rainfall maps and change them should the storm track change.
We are heading into a very amped up pattern beyond this storm system, with a deep trough expected to take hold of he Midwest ad th eastern US with a very cool regime taking hold by midweek, highs in the low 60s in NE PA to low 70s in coastal/urban locations and lows in the mid 30s to low 40s for NE PA to upper 40s and low 50s for coastal/urban locations.