Tonight’s update on the pending storm will include impact maps that I was not able to make earlier
The wall of rainfall is beginning to move NE approaching the area this evening, the band of rain seen entering Delaware through SE PA is associated with the warm front, as the storm intensifies this band of rain will expand in coverage and intensify over night, leading to a period of steady rain from the early morning hours on through early afternoon over much of the area, heaviest will be I95 points NW
Most of the area will ten see a break once the warm front crosses, especially extreme east PA , all of NJ points east by 1 pm and catch a 2-4 hour break overall although some scattered showers and thunderstorms will still be possible.
When the warm front crosses, instability will increase over te aforementioned areas, leading to thunderstorm formation ahead of the cold front with this storm by the late afternoon hours, some of which will be severe, then the cold front will swing through with a potential squall line and damaging winds then a period of steady rain before the storm clears out by later tomorrow night
The map above is used more so to represent sustained winds, the greatest sustained winds outside of thunderstorms will be along the immediate coast.
Red- sustained 25-35 mph out of the SE from mid afternoon through mid evening tomorrow, with gusts up to 40 outside of thunderstorms, in thunderstorms winds could gust to 50-65 mph, coastal flooding and beach erosion will be likely
Orange- Sustained winds of 20-30 mph out of the SE with gusts up to 35-40 outside of thunderstorms, in thunderstorms winds can gust to 50-65 mph
Yellow- Sustained winds at 15-25 mph out of the SSE , gusts up to 30-35 outside of thunderstorms, winds in thunderstorms can gust to 50-65 mph
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
RED- Highest and most widespread severe threat, where breaks in the rain and even clouds will be possible, some sun is possible and this is where the highest instability will be , with heavy rain , strong winds and isolated tornadoes being the main threat, winds in storms can easily gust over 60 mph
Orange- Severe threat is real but not as widespread as the red area, with heavy rain and strong winds the main issue , winds in storms can gust to 50-65 mph, these ares will be less unstable, along the coast due to marine influence and inland due to being close to the steady rain
Yellow- Very slight severe threat, more so strong storms with wind gusts to 45-55 possible, ad heavy rain , not much instability to work with due to clouds and steady rain inland
Red- This is where the steadiest and heaviest rain is expected with widespread amounts of 2-4 inches expected along with a flood threat
Orange- Rain with the warm front, a break then more rain with the cold front late afternoon and evening rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches with 1 inch in southern portions of the orange shading and 2 inches more likely in the northern portions,highest thunderstorm severe weather threat so local amounts could be up to 2.5 inches
Green – Not looking too impressive in the rain department due to distance from the main low, more showery weather expected with the warm front then showers and storms with the cold front later in the afternoon and evening, overall 0.50-1.00 exected with 0.50-0.75 south and 0.75 1.00 north, however this is where te strongest winds will take place and locations impacted with thunderstorms could get as much as 1.5 inches
This is a storm with many faces with heavy rain, severe weather and wind, where the heaviest rain is, you will not get the strongest winds, those with the severe threat will get rain wind and thunderstorms and those with the highest wind threat will miss out on the heaviest rain and highest severe threat as shown on the above forecast maps.