Fall has clearly taken a early and deep hold in the NE US and that will continue through the next 7-10 days.
A cold front that came through Saturday evening with thunderstorms, has carved out a nice deep trough over the eastern US htta will remain in place through Wednesday, this trough and canadian high pressure system is leading to a NW flow and thus very cool weather.
Todays highs have topped out in the upper 50s over NE PA to mid to upper 60s along the coast, lows tonight will fall into the upper 30s over NE PA to mid to upper 40s along the coast under clear skies and light winds.
Tomorrow this trough will begin to move east and weaken slightly, as a cold front will begin to approach from the NW, so temperatures will modify a bit but still remain cool and average to slightly below average, with highs in the lower to mid 60s over NE PA to lower 70s along the coast, night-time lows will fall into the lower to mid 40s over NE PA to low 50s along the coast
Wednesday ahead of a weak frontal system, high pressure will move off the coast, winds will become southwesterly and we will moderate to slightly above average temperatures, only for 1 day though, highs in the upper 60s over NE PA to mid to upper 70s along the coast
This front will slowly slide through the area Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning with scattered showers and thunderstorms.
By Thursday another trough will be approaching from the NW with once again a cool polar air mass taking hold from Thursday through the weekend, highs in the low 60s NE PA to upper 60s to low 70s along the coast
Friday the tough will dig into the east, leading to highs in the upper 50s over NE PA to upper 60s along the coast, but a pretty unsettled pattern looks to be setting up for the weekend
By Saturday, the weak cold front looks to stall just south of the area, with the potential for clouds, scattered showers and cool conditions , then a strong northern stream disturbance looks to interact with a weak southern stream disturbance, setting up for a potential coastal low , which could make for a wet and windy Sunday afternoon through Monday
Here is Saturday above, we see the frontal boundary stalled just to our south with a weak wave moving along it, I don’t see a wash out for Saturday but certainly cloudy with showers and cool weather, highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s, lows in the mid 40s to low 50s
By Sunday night we begin to see this potential coastal low development, much of Sunday looks to be mainly dry but again cloudy and cool with highs in the upper 50s NE PA to mid to upper 60s along the coast
By late Sunday night and early Monday , depending on exact interaction of the polar jet stream and sub tropical jet, we could have a developing coastal storm really wrapping up just south of Long Island with a nice soaking rain and wind event
And this model depicts it being a slow mover (due to a strong NAO block) so rain and wind could continue into much of Wednesday , I will be watching and tracking this potential storm system through the upcoming week.