This year for the winter forecast, I am going to be writing in several parts and sections instead of just one really long article like last year , because that can get quite confusing.
I have done a lot of research and with the help of Steven DiMartino of NYNJPAWEATHER.COM ( a very good weather site, I highly recommend it), who has and still is helping me understand all the factors needed to make a successful winter forecast and I am going to go into very specific detail and go over all the meteorological standpoints.
Part 1 is going to consist of ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation), its state , whether it will be La Nina , El Nino or La Nada (neutral) and the effects it will have on the pattern around the globe and thus the winter pattern for the US (specifically the eastern US).
Part 2 will consist of the stratosphere which is a very big factor in the winter forecast, and its connections and influences on high latitude blocking such as the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) , AO (Arctic Oscillation) etc and of course once again how these factors will influence the winter weather pattern over the US (again specifically the eastern US).
Part 3 will be an overview of everything from parts one and two and put all the factors together to make a final forecast and all the pretty colorful maps everyone love!
I am going to be working on these 3 sections behind the scenes over the next few weeks , and will publish them sometime between November 1st – 15th, occasionally throwing out some hints here and there for all you winter weather lovers!
Of course I will resume with normal posts and updates on short range and medium range weather too.