Hurricane Sandy, currently a category 2 hurricane with 105 mph is currently lifting into the Bahamas and showing signs of strengthening .
Like I stated yesterday, the pattern is coming together perfectly for this to have MAJOR AND DEVESTATING effects on the Mid Atlantic and Northeast US
ALL MODEL GUIDANCE, is picking up on this now and this storm IS COMING, it would be wise to start getting plans together for a HURRICANE! The storm will be subtropical upon approaching the US East coastline as it phases with the polar jet stream , meaning cold air will be pulled into the system HOWEVER is will have the same impacts as a hurricane
These are all the models, very good agreement on a NE US landfall now and the pattern supports nothing else but that, with a strong negative NAO and oceanic storm blocking Sandy from going out to sea and a strong trough coming in from the midwest, which will tile negative and pull Sandy into the Mid Atlantic and NE
The exact track will determine who gets exactly what, right now I see a track between Delaware and Long Island. Final track will not be determined until tomorrow at least, however this storm will be big enough to impact everyone in a big way from SE Virginia all the way to MAINE
Latest National Hurricane Center Forecast has the storm slamming right into NJ, this track would lead to catastrophic coastal flooding , extremely heavy rain and hurricane force wind gusts coming off the ocean driving right into the forecast area, thus driving water and piling it along the coast AND IN New York City.
The thing to keep in mind is, if you are NORTH of the storm track , that’s where the strongest winds will be and of course heavy rain, if you are along and south and west of the track, that’s where the heaviest rain will take place just based on how tropical systems work and circulate.
I expect a track somewhere between Dover Delaware and eastern LI , much of that area is NJ so keep in mind that NJ has the bes chance of landfall, however models are trending south so it could landfall more in the Delmarva , a track in the Delmarva would again lead to the strongest winds being driven into NJ but NJ would be slightly spared by rainfall
Widespread 5-10 inches of rain
Sustained winds tropical storm force
Gusts hurricane force throughout the area
WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES
Moderate to Major Flooding
Major Coastal erosion
Moderate to Major coastal flooding
Timing with this system is highly volatile and may change
As of now I expect showers to start spreading north-northwest into the area by late Sunday afternoon/ Sunday evening, gradually becoming steadier and heavier and rapidly increasing winds to tropical storm/ hurricane force by Monday morning, the worst of the storm will take hold Monday as the storm makes landfall somewhere in the area. However as the storm slowly lifts NW , impacts of rain and wind would likely stick around through Tuesday afternoon
We still have model divergence on track but a general consensus between CT and Delmarva with a storm coming from the SE
The EURO which has been extremely consistent on an east coast storm has the storm driving SE to NW through the Delmarva area, and you can see the circulation would lead to SE winds just driving water right into the NJ coast, LI Coast and NYC area, and POSSIBLY even Philadelphia with a track like this, water can be driven up the Delaware River!!
The GFS is now pretty much the farthest north solution, showing the storm driving from east t west through LI , this would again really drive water in the NYC metro area and somewhat the NJ coast although winds would be more Northeasterly with this solution, and a deluge of rain
If I was to pick a track as of now, this would be it. The storm driving into the Southern/Central NJ coast line only because it’s a happy middle point between the north GFS and the southern Euro solutions but again I wont be able to iron out the exact track until at least tomorrow.
Either way the forecast area will experience MAJOR IMPACT from this storm with heavy rains (5+ inches) strong tropical storm to hurricane force winds and very widespread power outages
I’m being asked if this will compare to Irene, this has POTENTIAL to be just as bad or WORSE than Irene , mainly the coastal flooding aspect due to the storm driving in from the Southeast leading to onshore winds, Irene came from the SSW and lead to mainly offshore winds and so coastal flooding was not as bad as it could have been, besides on eastern Long Island .
This storm could also very well be stronger, Irene was 969 mb – 975 mb upon impacting our area, this storm is forecast to be in 945-965 mb and finally it will be slower moving . I don’t think flooding will be worse last year was extremely wet before Irene came in, the ground was super saturated already so it couldn’t hold anymore water, this year has been much drier so the ground will dry to absorb a lot of water , however that’s not to say there wont be moderate to major flooding issues because 5-10 inches of rain is enough to cause a lot of flooding no matter how dry its been.
How to prepare for a hurricane:
A hurricane is on its way. What do I do?
- Listen to a NOAA Weather Radio for critical information from the National Weather Service (NWS).
- Check your disaster supplies. Replace or restock as needed.
- Bring in anything that can be picked up by the wind (bicycles, lawn furniture).
- Close your windows, doors and hurricane shutters. If you do not have hurricane shutters, close and board up all windows and doors with plywood.
- Turn your refrigerator and freezer to the coldest setting. Keep them closed as much as possible so that food will last longer if the power goes out.
- Turn off propane tank.
- Unplug small appliances.
- Fill your car’s gas tank.
- Create an evacuation plan with members of your household. Planning and practicing your evacuation plan minimizes confusion and fear during the event.
- Find out about your community’s hurricane response plan. Plan routes to local shelters, register family members with special medical needs and make plans for your pets to be cared for.
- Obey evacuation orders. Avoid flooded roads and washed out bridges.
Standard homeowners insurance doesn’t cover flooding. It’s important to have protection from the floods associated with hurricanes, tropical storms, heavy rains and other conditions that impact the U.S. For more information on flood insurance, please visit the National Flood Insurance Program Web site at www.FloodSmart.gov.