Someone made the weather Gods very angry the last 2 weeks, as we got pounded and devastated by hurricane Sandy then a mere 9 days later in the middle of recovery, an early season MAJOR SNOWSTORM hits the area on November 7th-8th with eastern NJ through NYC and Connecticut getting a widespread 5-10 inches with lollipops of 12-14 inches!!
I finally have some good news , a break in the pattern is unfolding before our eyes which will lead to warm and tranquil weather conditions through Tuesday.
We see our winter storm , which wa named Athena by The Weather Channel is exiting due east into the Atlantic and due to changes in the Pacific , powerful storm system is approaching the inter-mountain West, this will produce a huge snowstorm for Montana and much of the Rocky mountain region, however it will pump up and already is a ridge ad rising heights from the Plains points east
Convection in the tropical pacific has been around the dateline, which is why we have been cold and stormy, this placement of convection is shown in the MJO as phases 7 , 8 & 1 , this is directly correlated to a trough around the Aleutian islands, which counter acts a ridge over the western US into western Canada and a trough in the eastern US, however we are in weak phases 3 & 4 of the MJO showing that there is little to no convection around the dateline and any convection is in the Indian ocean, this pattern leads to a ridge around the Aleutian Islands , thus the deep trough entering the western US and thus a ridge over the eastern US, explained here in the 2012-2013 winter forecast that was publicly released yesterday : https://northeasternnjwx.wordpress.com/2012/11/08/winter-forecast-2012-2013-mid-atlantic-region/
This pattern will NOT last long, as you can see the MJO is expected to circle back towards phases 7 8 and 1 in the longer range, this is due to the west based El Nino leading to pulsing convection around the dateline
So that strong winter storm that will impact the western US will pump up a ridge of high pressure, currently developing over the plains , this will slowly head towards the SE Coast as the cold front with the winter storm slowly comes east, this will lead to a Southwest flow developing tomorrow and lasting through Tuesday, and thus a big warm up is expected.
Saturday highs will be in the low 50s interior to mid to upper 50s along the coast , lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s under partly to mostly cloudy skies as a warm front comes though, can’t rule out a spotty shower over NE PA but overall a good day
Sunday will be sunny with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s and lows in the low 40s NE PA to upper 40s along the coast
Monday as the cold front begins to approach a surge of warm air will come ahead of it, so highs in the low 60s NE PA to mid to upper 60s along the coast are expected, clouds will increase ahead of the front Monday night leading to a very mild night with lows only in the low 50s to mid 50s expected
Tuesday showers and thunderstorms will move in with this cold front, another warm day is expected but under clouds and rain with highs in the low 60s to upper 60s again.
A much colder air mass will come in behind the front with the middle and end of next week being rather cold , highs in the low 40s NE PA tp mid to upper 40s along the coast lows in the mid 20s NE PA to low 30s along the coast from Wednesday through next weekend
What is going on here is not a pattern change but more of a break in the pattern and a “reloading pattern”. Due to all the energy released by Sandy and the nor’easter, our pattern needs to reload and so the next 2 weeks (through about thanksgiving) will feature overall fairly tranquil weather with temperatures averaging around to slightly above normal, HOWEVER I expect the reloading to be complete by the Thanksgiving time period and I expect that the pattern will come back with a vengeance, so for one we have to watch for a powerful storm system the eek of thanksgiving (long-range models already hinting at this) and number 2 , we have to watch for a VERY COLD end to November again starting around Thanksgiving.
This reload in the pattern will lead to increasing snow pack over NW Canada and so very cold arctic air will begin to penetrate into the US , we will see that this weekend over the Pacific NW and Inter-Mountain west, the doors for this cold to enter the eastern US will be opened around the thanksgiving time period