If you want a cold and snowy weather pattern , this is not what you want at all, this is just about as bad as it gets for snow lovers, and as good as it gets for warm weather lovers in the east
We continue to have a strong upper level low spinning in the Gulf of Alaska , it came back and it came back in a BIG way, this is leading to Pacific warmth flooding the nation and very warm conditions through most of the country.
A weak cold front will drop south tomorrow and Wednesday and suppress some of this warmth but until then its going to feel like we jumped to spring
Above is todays 500 mb pattern, there is a trough and series of storms moving into the west , under the influence of the Gulf of Alaska vortex which has pumped up a ridge in the central and eastern US , with a WSW wind and very warm conditions . Tomorrow will get warmer yet for the forecast area as the SW flow becomes stronger with highs in the upper 50s NE PA to mid to upper 60s along the coast, some locations can possibly touch 70 although that will be extremely isolated . Lows tonight will be in the upper 30s NE PA to the mid to upper 40s along the coast and tomorrow night lows will only fall into the 50s for most locations
A weak cold front will come through Wednesday morning with some isolated showers but more importantly will knock down temperatures to near normal for a few days , I expect once again that this cold shot will be transient. Highs Thursday through Saturday will be in the mid 40s to low 50s along the coast to lower 40s to mid 40s NE PA with lows in the low 30s along the coast to mid to upper 20s NE PA .
The pattern will support a” Great Lakes Cutter” late weekend and early next week as a trough comes in from the NW interacts with the sub tropical jet stream, a storm will form and most likely the phase will occur early which will lead to a storm heading from the southern Plains into the Great Lakes with little to no blocking in place and a bit of a ridge returning over the eastern US, ahead of this storm we will have yet another warm up , possibly a big one for a few days before the associated cold front comes through and leads to another transient cold shot.
This is going against my winter forecast, but I wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for a big pattern change any time soon, the Pacific is just horrible right now and its going to take a while for that to break down.
Overall pattern expected through December 20th
I think things will begin to get more interesting by the end of December , more on that later on.