This post will focus on the long-range weather pattern, I finally see data that will make cold and snow lovers happy in the long run
We have had this pesky upper level low in the Gulf of Alaska, which has been just flooding much of the nation with warmth and record warmth at that , this has been back and forth since October and why we have been swinging up and down so much, when the low is there , we get big warm ups and quiet conditions, when it weakens or shifts around it gets much colder and stormier, we saw that in November with 2 snowstorms that occurred.
This upper level low leads to a strong zonal flow over the US and Canada which just destroys blocking ( negative NAO phases).
Latest data says this upper level low will not be there much longer though , and this is piece number one , and a huge piece that is needed to get to our cold and stormy winter pattern
Waters are warming in the Gulf of Alaska , which points to ridging taking hold and the upper level low losing control, we see that on the satellite today as the upper level low is weakening rapidly . This upper level low will get kicked out this weekend .
Above are the stratospheric anomalies, I talked about this in the winter forecast. We see warm anomalies expanding into Alaska , this will help to kick the upper level low away . Not only that but the stratosphere is warming pretty rapidly and warm anomalies are expanding rapidly into the US , where the stratosphere is warm, is where troughs are more likely
We also see cold anomalies over Greenland, which enhance chances of blocking, once we get the Gulf of Alaska low to disappear , blocking will return rapidly
We see just as the GOA (Gulf of Alaska) low is disappearing, the NAO is rapidly tanking , again the stratosphere supports blocking but the GOA low was preventing it from developing .
The GOA low will slowly turn into a large ridge over the east Pacific and west coast, this will tap into the very cold air trapped in Canada, it will first dump into the eastern Rockies and western Plains, and with each passing cold front slowly come east, by late month
Another big factor will be that the remains of the GOA low will come into the US , develop into a modest to major storm system for the midwest and NE early next week, it will drive into the Great Lakes leading to a rainstorm for us but it is going to pull in very cold air behind it, and with the Gulf of Alaska low gone, and blocking, the cold will become more steady.
I believe this whole transition is going to take time though, the GOA low will slowly be replaced with a large ridge over the east Pacific and west coast, this will tap into the very cold air trapped in Canada, it will first dump into the eastern Rockies and western Plains, and with each passing cold front slowly come east, so we will SLOWLY get colder as the month goes on, very warm conditions through next week, then I believe we enter a fluctuating phase (ups and downs in temperatures) through mid month , and by late month , as I have been saying, the fun will begin .
You will begin to see the computer models really pick up on this in the coming days, there’s already signs that they are.