Tonight I am going to look into the long-range again and what I think will be a gradual change to an eventual more active and cold.
Something that caught my eye in the recent 2 days is the MJO , the MJO has been between phases 2 .,3 and the circle of death for quite some time now, and it has shown, we look for phases 7 , 8 and 1 to bring cold and active weather to the eastern US , phases 3 , 4, 5 are warm and dry phases for the eastern US and the circle of death means there isn’t much influence on the weather pattern.
We have seen the effects of phases 2 & 3 with a dominant upper level low in the Gulf of Alaska which has led to a progressive and warm pattern to start off December . If you remember about 2 weeks ago , people were talking about the pattern changing in early December but I was against that idea , as the MJO was forecast , and initially did circle through phases 2 -3 and even partially into phase 4 , before now circling back into the circle of death
We see the recent cycle, it started in phase 2 , circled through 3 & partially into 4 and now is back into the COD , and so we had warm weather pattern , and I believe the MJO has more correlation to the weather than some people believe. but now we see something interesting, it is forecast to go through the circle of death and then into phase 1 , with a lot of agreement on that happening
Now this i something to keep an eye on , if this verify,it would go into phase 1 around mid December, and phase 1 means convection is strong around the dateline, this supports a favorable Pacific pattern, with a trough around the Aleutians , ridging into Alaska and the west coast , which we havent seen much of this fall.
So it circles into phase 1 in mid December BUT there is a 7-10 day lag period between the MJO going into phase 1 and its influences on our weather pattern here in the US , so lets say it circles into phase 1 around December 15th, with a 7-10 lag period , its influence would be felt somewhere between the 20th – 25th of December . for quite some time now I have been harping on late December for a colder and stormier pattern to take hold, so I will keep an eye on tis piece of the puzzle in the coming days, but as of now I still like where I stand, winter pattern begins to take over late December
As the MJO is becoming more favorable , warm stratospheric anomalies are rapidly spreading east from Asia , into Alaska and now into north America, the anomalies have been cold over the US and thus ridging has been dominant, but warmer anomalies with allow more troughiness and cold air will be able to spill south from Canada , but again, we have a 7-10 lag period between the stratosphere warming and its effects, so warm anomalies will continue to spread south into mid December but the 7-10 day lag period will make its influences delayed until late December
For quite some time now I have been harping on late December for a colder and stormier pattern to take hold, so I will keep an eye on these pieces of the puzzle in the coming days and week , but as of now I still like where I stand, with noticeable changes in the pattern by around Christmas time.