We have another round of wet weather and mild conditions coming up this week , as several storm systems will impact the area over the next 5-7 days. The mild weather pattern will remain in place.
We see on the radar, clearly a very active weather pattern is on the way thanks to an active sub tropical jet stream , today we have a weak area of low pressure heading through the Great lakes, with a warm front coming through, rain is expected through much of the night tonight. A break in the rain is expected late tonight and tomorrow morning . This first disturbance will generally give another 0.10-0.20
We see a much stronger disturbance over the southern Plains, that will head north and east likley cutting somewhere between the Appalachians and the eastern Great Lakes, it will likely transfer its energy to the NJ coast , but it wont matter much as there is just too much warm air bought up by the primary low which tracks west of us so a SSE wind though much of the storm bringing in warm air before changing to NE after the transfer, this steady rain will move in tomorrow late afternoon and especially night, lasting through Tuesday morning. Some of the rain will be heavy. This second storm will give 1/2 to 1 inch of rain , although locally up to 1.5 inches is possible
Tuesday afternoon through Thursday will feature a break in storm systems with temperatures average to slightly above average , highs in the mid 40s to ow 50s lows in the 30s area wide
Another storm system will be in the making and will impact the area Friday and Saturday, but again due to the presence of a SE ridge , the polar jet and sub tropical jet will likely phase over the southern Plains with a strong low pressure tracking between the Appalachians and eastern Great lakes so another heavy rain event can be expected . This again has the potential to transfer to the coast with a weak block over the north Atlantic but again , so much warm air comes ahead of the primary so it wont make a difference.
This storm will likely bring another 1-2 inches of rain, and it is after this, most likely next weekend that we will see our first true shot of arctic cold air so far ( modified anyway) , just in time for the START of winter, making for a prolonged cold shot through the week of Christmas.
This is supported by the MJO going into phase 1, it is in phase 1 now and there is a 7-10 day lag period to wait through, although if the forecast verifies and it circles through 2-3 and 4 the cold will likely not lock in for a long period of time , ill go more in depth in this with a long range thoughts post.