A storm system currently developing over the Plains will bring major impact to the Midwest and Northeastern United States from tonight through Friday afternoon
We see an area of low pressure developing over the Central plains pretty rapidly and heading northeast towards Chicago . The storm will hit a block and stall over the southern Great Lakes by tomorrow afternoon
We see there is a major winter storm on the west side of this low pressure system, with winter storm and blizzard warnings widespread from NW Kansas to Wisconsin and into Chicago
We will not get a major winter storm out of this, as we will be on the east side of the low with a moist and warm SSE wind. We see a tail of thunderstorms developing from Illinois to Texas, this will rapidly grow and expand in coverage and intensity as the storm strengthens and picks up Gulf moisture.
The trough associated with the storm will turn negatively tilted . and pull in more moisture from the Atlantic , along with help the storm intensify and set up a powerful jet streak
As the storm lifts north-east slowly , so will the associated very powerful cold front.
So tomorrow will start off nice then clouds will gradually increase through the day, becoming overcast by late afternoon , winds will switch and increase out of the southeast starting early in the afternoon
Tomorrow night showers will move in and turn into a heavy windblown rain , with winds out of the south-southeast at 15-25 with gusts up to 30, increasing to 25-35 with gusts to 45-50 late at night , again this SE wind will pull in atlantic moisture leading to very heavy rain
The Friday morning commute will be ugly, heavy rain, minor flooding strong winds of 25-35 with gusts to 45-50 at times , mild temperatures with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s .
The National Weather Service issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook for the area
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
410 PM EST WED DEC 19 2012
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-
EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
410 PM EST WED DEC 19 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT…NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.
.DAY ONE…THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON…A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION. HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT…WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MINOR URBAN FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THIS TIME THAT COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD RANGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES.
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT…WITH
POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND 6
AM FRIDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ALONG LONG ISLAND…AND AROUND THE NYC METRO AREA. THE WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED DURING THE DAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
The rain will exit Friday afternoon , the wind certainly will not though, gusty winds are expected through Saturday night, with the strongest Friday morning than slowly tapering off to 15-25 gusts to 30 on Saturday , a much colder air mass will be moving in for the weekend, highs will only be in the 30s with lows in the 20s area wide through Christmas.
A weak disturbance will have to be watched for Christmas Eve and Christmas that could produce a light snow event , details on that by the weekend.
HPC forecasted rainfall