We see on satellite, a very strong and intensifying storm system approaching the Great Lakes, this will move NE and then eventually ENE very slowly over the next 24 hours, bringing with it major impact to the forecast area .
The low pressure is currently over eastern Illinois moving ENE into Indiana , and so all the rain you see will also come ENE through the forecast area
Winds with this will increase through the night , and by midnight – 2am winds will be southeast and 25-35 mph with higher gusts up to 40-50 , early Friday morning a squall line is expected to come through with heavy rain and thunderstorms, this will bring winds that could potentially reach and exceed 60 mph .
The front edge of the precipitation field is virga (which is precipitation aloft that dries up before reaching the ground) but it will moisten up the atmosphere and rain will begin falling between 9pm-12am tonight , and will become steady and heavy through tomorrow morning/ early afternoon , the trough will tilt negative and pull in Atlantic moisture, so this band of rain will intensify upon approaching the forecast area.
Early Friday AM
We see moderate to heavy rain moving through and very windy conditions early tomorrow morning, this will exit most areas by noon time , it looks like a pretty quick hitter but its going to pack a punch , the worst conditions can be expected between 3 am and 9 am Friday morning
Above is late tomorrow morning and early afternoon, the rain is moving out and much colder air is coming in
Rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches are expected with locally up to 2.5 inheavy downpours , and again damaging winds are possible , especially Friday morning . Some minor flooding will be possible as the ground is saturated from recent rain and flash flooding is possible tomorrow morning as the rain will fal very heavy at times.
Highs on Friday will be met in the morning hours in the low 50s before rapidly falling in the afternoon, as a much colder air mass comes in , it is possible everyone could see wet flakes in the afternoon if any precipitation lingers but it wont be a big deal. Temperatures will fall into the 30s and 40s by mid to late afternoon
We see the general 1-2 inches but locally up to 2.5, especially in NW NJ where oragraphic lift will likley enhance rainfall.
Friday night through Monday will be tranquil but much colder than we have been, with highs in the 30s for most to low 40s along the coast and lows in the 20s for just about everyone . Friday night through Saturday night will remain windy as the upper level low remains over the NE US , and even some snow showers and flurries will be possible, before winds slacken off on Sunday.
The colder and stormier pattern ive been warning about to arrive in late December looks to be doing so, the cold is expected to come steady after tomorrow and 2 more storm systems to watch next week, one weak one for Christmas that could make it a white Christmas for some and then a much stronger one next Wednesday – Friday that has a lot of uncertainty with it right now.