On todays satellite we see a very large ridge is in control over the east, and a warm front just to our south west will move northeast quickly bringing rain this afternoon through this evening , temperatures today will remain on the cool side, especially compared to the last few days with influence of clouds and eventual rain with highs in the mid 30s interior to low to mid 40s along the coast , still above average but chilly overall speaking
We can see the rain with the associated warm front coming east and northeast pretty quickly , the rain will exit later tonight and for tomorrow behind the warm front skies will clear , and there will be a SW flow with strong warm air advection on the west side of this southeast ridge , highs in the mid upper 40s interior to mid 50s along the coast, well above normal, for lows temperatures will not fall much with variable cloudiness and a southwest wind with lows in the low 30s NE PA to low 40s along the coast. Total rainfall from this warm front will range from 1/4 to 1/2 inch
Temperatures will spike on Sunday with highs in the low 50s interior to upper 50s /low 60s as you get closer to the coast , although the immediate coast will likely stay a bit cooler due to influence from the Atlantic , with water temperatures in the low to mid 40s highs along the immediate coast will likely be stuck in the low to mid 50s , this is again way above average .
Monday through Thursday an arctic cold front and a stubborn southeast ridge will make for a very unsettled and mild week . An arctic cold front seen oer the Rockies right now will slide east and will try to come out of the midwest into the eastern US through much of next week, however the large SE ridge will force the front to stall and very slowly crawl east
Monday and Tuesday will be partly sunny to mostly cloudy with isolated to scattered showers and highs in the mid 40s interior to low to mid 50s along the coast with weak disturbances riding the front, most locations will remain dry with the best chance of rain the farther west you go and get closer to the front .
The actual cold front is modeled coming through Tuesday with a stronger disturbance and steady rain , however given the large and stubborn nature of the southeast ridge and the fact that models have a bias of bringing in cold air too quickly , I believe this will be delayed to Wednesday and perhaps Thursday. I believe the cold front will finally make it through area Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning from west to east with a wave of steady rain Wednesday . Also given the nature of the southeast ridge and plenty of factors supporting it, such as the MJO stuck in phase 6 and a dominanting cold PDO , I believe the true arctic will remain to our west through late week/ early next weekend with temperatures around here seasonable to even slightly above normal but much colder compared to what we are and will experience. Another 1/2 to 1 inch of rain can be expected with the cold front passage with some potential snow on the back end for high elevations of northeast and central PA with some light accumulations (coating to 2 inches) possible depening on how quickly the cold air comes in.