Looking at todays observations and data I believe I am starting to get a good handle on our potential snow event Friday
Above is todays 500 mb map , now the key to this forecast is the ridge in the western US , we need the ridge to be amplified in order for our northern stream disturbance to dive south sharply to meet up with the southern stream energy.
Over the past 36-48 hours the models went from showing a significant snow storm to wither a light snow event or nothing at all , because they made the ridge in the west much flatter and thus the northern and southern stream energies stayed separate and weak , and the northern stream disturbance gets sheared out as well in this set up.
However looking at todays 500 mb map , I see the models are initializing a bit too weak with the ridge in the west , and we saw that today with the 12z GFS as it came in more northwest (due to new data being put in) and phased to 2 disturbances just off the coast , as the model picked up on a stronger ridge signal out west. They phase too late for a major snow event (which is what I expect given lack of a block in the North Atlantic) but still produces a light to moderate snow event for most of the area with high ratio snow .
We see eastern NJ. NYC and Long Island get a fairly good clip of snow with widespread snow showers/light snow through the rest of the area
So given the latest data while I don’t expect any major snowstorm I can see a widespread 1-3/2-4 inch event for NJ , LI, NYC area with light but high ratio snow Friday afternoon and night
My best guess as of now is that NJ would get a widespread 1-3 inches, with the least in Northwest NJ , more along the coast and Long Island would get 2-4 inch type snows with very high ratios as temperatures will be stuck in the 10s to low 20s , my only concern here would be virga (precipitation aloft that doesnt make it to the ground due to dry air) due to the cold and dry air mass over the area , virga would be more likely the further north and west you go like areas of Northern NJ and Northeastern PA .
We still have 48 hours to watch this event and have to take into account things like virga , if the ridge in the west remains amplified enough to produce this and what not as we get closer , this is not my final forecast just some of my latest thoughts . The model runs late tonight should be very telling as the disturbances for this storm come on shore