After a light snow event came through with a general 1-3 inches area wide, we will have a sunny but continued cold weekend followed by a warm front with the potential for sleet freezing rain on Monday , especially to the north and west of I95.
For today we will have highs again struggling in the upper teens to Mid 20s and los tonight in the 0s to lower 10s , we will begin to moderate slightly on Sunday with highs in the lw 20s NE PA to low 30s along the coast with sunny skies and lows tomorrow night in te tens area wide
late Sunday night into early Monday we will see a warm front come up from the southwest as we enter a relaxation period with the cold weather , but arctic air does not like to leave easily, especially along and east of t Appalachians , and high pressure to the northeast will make sure it does not leave fast , so we will get precipitation breaking out due to warm air over riding the old air , we will see the upper levels warm up but due to cold air damming at the surface will remain around or below freezing s you get an icing event
My main idea is that most of the icing stays north and west of the NYC and Philadelphia metro areas, not so much for lack of cold air but more so because that high to the north look to be too close and will force dry air to linger around longer, so as of now the main ice and snow threat is for NW NJ . NE and eastern PA , that’s not to say light snow,sleet and freezing rain can’t make it into New Jersey and New York metro but the idea is by the time precipitation can make it to the surface it may be too late for much of anything.
Areas like Central PA through Allentown to Scranton PA into NW NJ , southern Upstate NY AND the Hudson Valley will likely start off as snow , getting a general coating to 2 inches before warmer air aloft comes in , then the precipitation will turn to sleet and then freezing rain/drizzle , anywhere from 0.10-0.25 of ice is possible
As for the remainder of the forecast area to the south and east, it appears to be a very light precipitation event with a brief start of light winter mix over the light rain, with prehaps a coating to 0.05 of ice , by tomorrow afternoon I will go more into detail and make maps etc.
The warm front will pass through and bring in much warmer air for Tuesday through Thursday , Tuesday will be mostly cloudy but mostly dry besides some scattered showers with highs in the low 40s NE PA to upper 40s to around 50 along the coast
A much bigger storm will impact the area Wednesday through Thursday morning , as a storm develops in the southern Plains and tracks towards the Great Lakes , due to the warm temperatures ahead of the storm and the very cold air coming in behind the storm, there will be a tight temperature gradient so the storm will intensify rapidly moving northeast
As the low moves NE through the Lakes a very strong cold front will come through slowly with heavy rain and strong winds , this system will pick up Gulf moisture and produce a heavy rain event with a general 1-3 inches of rain fall and winds out of the south 20-30 mph with gusts up to 50+ possible with the cold frontal passage as a strong jet streak comes through , temperatures on Wednesday will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s , Thursday will start off mild then temperatures look to fall through the day depending on timing of the frontal passage . Some minor flooding will be possible between snow pack, frozen ground and heavy rainfall.
Friday through next weekend the cold air will return and remain in place , not as cold as this time around but still below average temperatures with highs in the 20s to low 30s lows in the teens to lower 20s area wide with consistent clipper and light snow chances . The cold looks to be dominant through much of the month of February
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