A couple of light to moderate snow events have come through the area the past 2-3 days some areas getting hit pretty hard, some areas getting little to nothing and some people getting anything in between , the parade of these light snow events will continue through tomorrow night with one coming through tonight , the other coming through tomorrow night , with the one tonight being the more “impressive” one.
We see another clipper system is on the move towards our area with a swath of light snow coming east, it is likely virga will overspread our area this evening , and snow will take a few hours to actually reach the ground because of dry air in place
Snow showers and steady light snow look to start reaching the ground from 10 pm west to 1 am east and will continue through the morning hours on Tuesday before a brief break
Above are a group of short-range models, and the maps show total liquid precipitation (which will be in the form of snow), there is general agreement on a swath of precipitation between 0.10-0.20 which would translate to a general 1-2 inches with up to 3 possible in spots in the light blue, areas in the purple would generally be around a coating to 1 inch maximum. The bottom right and bigger map is a mean of all these models put together , that’s the one to go by.
Based on current radar I think this swath will be about 50 miles south of what most of these models show , but most of the area looks to receive anywhere from a coating to 2 inches of snowfall, and a disruptive morning commute tomorrow.
Tomorrow afternoon the snow will move east fairly quickly , give way to peeks of sun and highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s
Another weaker disturbance and clipper system will come through tomorrow night into early Wednesday morning with more or less scattered snow showers and flurries with only a coating expected for most locations, maybe somebody picks up an inch or so , I actually wouldn’t be surprised to see most of this event come in the form of virga and snow not even touch the ground , the Wednesday morning commute could also be impacted a bit but not a big deal by a long shot. This will be the last one to impact the area before a warmer pattern takes hold, another clipper will come through Friday but most likely its effects will be felt north of the forecast area.
You may be hearing some talk about Fridays storm merging with the sub tropical jet stream and forming into a coastal low that impacts the area significantly, let me be frank, it is HIGHLY unlikely. The European model above is the only one showing this and if you look at the 500 mb pattern it is depicting , its is very far from the ideal pattern we look for to get a good coastal storm going , deep trough in the west ridge in the middle of the country and a very weak progressive trough in the east with no blocking to be found , it’s not impossible but everything has to go just right with PERFECT timing, which has yet to happen this year and with this pattern I would not count on it , but considering that historically speaking the best model is being consistent with this, its something to keep an eye on.