Today we hae an area of low pressure developing over the Mid Atlantic, there is on over Virginia and another over Tennessee, both of these will emerge into one storm over the Delmarva and move quickly NE just southeast of the benchmark
The result will be increasing clouds followed by rain moving in during the mid to late afternoon hours, most locations that get precipitation will start as rain or at least mostly rain as temperatures rise to well above freezing levels this afternoon but as precipitation intensifies and cools the atmosphere, along with the sun setting, most locations in Northern NJ , Central NJ , NYC, LI down to the Philadelhia metro will go to snow rather quickly
While northern NJ will obviously change to snow first, the heaviest precipitation will be focused over southern and central NJ so only very minor accumulations are expected
It is central NJ through the Philadelphia metropolitan area and out to central Long Island that will get the highest snow totals out of this , as southern NJ will remain too warm through most of the event , but with heavy precipitation making it to central NJ, Philadelphia and Long Island , a heavy burst of snow is expected between 7 pm and 12 am tonight
The New York City metropolitan area looks to get clipped with some moderate snow
Above is a model out put for tonight, overall it looks correct but matching up with the current radar I expect this blob to be 25-50 miles NW of where its shown here, not really enough to change much though. It appears to me that the 0.25 contour should be over or just south of NYC . This storm will not be a big deal but perhaps enough to be disruptive to the Thursday morning commute and enough to keep us snow lovers happy and joyful.
Snow Totals Forecast:
NE PA – Little to nothing perhaps some snow showers/flurries.
Lehigh Valley – Light snow – 1-2 inches south, C-1 inch north.
Northwestern NJ – Snow showers – Coating to maybe 1 inch localized.
Northeastern NJ – Rain snow mix to light snow – 1-2 inches, mainly on the lighter side of that .
New York City Metro – Rain quickly to light to moderate snow – General 1-3 inches , western suburbs and the city get more towards the 1-2 , eastern suburbs more towards the 3 inch mark .
Philadelphia metro through Central NJ and out to Central LI – Rain quickly to moderate to heavy snow 3-5 inches of snow expected .
Southeastern NJ – Rain over to moderate snow 1-2 inches interior, C-1 inch closer to the coast.