Good evening everyone!
Tonight we have an area of low pressure heading into the Great Lakes which will slow down and stall as it hits a block over the north Atlantic , we will have a warm front come through later tonight but a dry frontal passage is expected with very dry air over the region and really not much of a temperature gradient to trigger precipitation, as the warm air mass with this storm is not impressive at all. Tonight will stay mainly clear with increasing clouds towards day break and lows in the upper 10s to low 20s interior to mid 20s to low 30s closer to the coast.
Meanwhile the cold front you see in the Midwest will come east and lead to rapidly increasing cloudiness and developing rain in the afternoon as temperatures rise into the mid 40s to lower 50s area wide with low 50s in Southern NJ and low to mid 40s interior.
The cold front will lose some of its punch coming east as again it runs into a very dry air mass over the region but regardless moderate rain is expected tomorrow afternoon and evening amounting to 1/4 to 1/2 inch area wide which could end as wet snow over Northeastern PA and northwestern NJ as cold air comes spilling in but little to no accumulation is expected
Wednesday and Thursday much colder air will come in with temperatures well below average , highs in the mid to upper 20s NE PA to low to mid 30s along the coast with lows in the mid teens NE PA to low to mid 20s along the coast with a chance of flurries on Wednesday and clear skies Thursday
Friday we will warm up slightly as a low tries to head towards the Great Lakes again with temperatures near normal in the mid 30s NE PA to lower 40s along the coast with increasing clouds
However a perfectly placed negative NAO block is expected so this low will not be able to successfully move into the Great Lakes but will have to transfer its energy east the coast and there’s potential for this to transfer and form a coastal storm off the Mid Atlantic coast which could impact the area with a variety of weather from moderate to heavy snow to an icy or sloppy mix to rain along the southern NJ coast , of course depending on exact track Friday night through Saturday night
If it tracks right along the immediate coast like this model shows this would be a mainly rain storm for most of the region but it wouldn’t take much of a shift east to make this a significant snowfall and given the overall progressive nature of the pattern a farther east solution would make more sense , but the air mass in place will only be marginally cold so this would really have to take the perfect track (and be strong enough to bring some dynamics into play) to bring the area a significant snowfall which would be right over the bench mark or slightly east
At this time I like the idea of a coastal low given the pattern and a storm like shown above but it’s too early to be able to tell what this will bring to certain parts of the region but what I can say is given the marginal nature of the air mass and slight warm air advection ahead of the primary low that heads west of us, I think a mainly rain event is in store for the immediate NJ coast to eastern Long Island, the rest is up in the air right now, ill keep updating on this storm and we should begin to get a better handle after tomorrows storm system is done and see what kind of blocking tomorrows storm turns into in the North Atlantic by Thursday .
After this storm system it appears that the pattern will slowly moderate and slowly turn into a warm weather pattern for the east (as the spring weather pattern begins to form already) by the start of March , more details on this found in my blog from last night : https://northeasternnjwx.wordpress.com/2013/02/16/long-range-the-step-up-to-spring-begins/
Hope you all have a good night