As we can see on satellite this morning, we are setting up for a very nasty weekend across the area , we have an area of low pressure that bought a major winter storm to the Plains tracking into the Great Lakes, the associated warm front is pushing north and east towards our region
But since this low pressure is hitting a large block it is slowly transferring its energy to the southeast US
We can see warm air advection precipitation trying to come into the region, but with very dry air in place and a ridge axis right over head, along with the primary low weakening I don’t expect much in the way of precipitation today and through most of the night, a few flurries and isolated rain/snow showers by the evening , most locations will remain dry with slowly increasing clouds , also winds will turn to the ENE today but will remain light
The main story is the moisture building up over the southeast , as the primary low over the Great Lakes weakens it will transfer its energy and a secondary low will begin to develop around Virginia starting late tonight , this low will track north and east right up the coast while intensifying, it will pick up moisture from a very active sub tropical jet stream and lead to precipitation over spreading the area very late tonight and early Saturday morning
Due to the east based negative NAO and the primary low tracking all the way into the Great Lakes with high pressure to the east of Maine , winds will turn Southeasterly tonight which will transport and flood the whole area with warm Atlantic air
It will likely start off as a mix or snow I95 points north-west early Saturday morning with mixing of rain and snow along I95 and snow likely over NW NJ and NE PA , I expect little to no accumulation between the I95 corridor and I-80 which includes New York City, NE and Central NJ
Mix of snow and sleet however will be a bit more prolonged over Northwest NJ and Northeastern PA and into the Lehigh Valley , still not much accumulation is expected just a general coating to 3 inches , with 2-3 inches or locally more confined to the highest elevations , there could also be minor icing with freezing rain before the change over to rain, over all 0.05 or less is expected , this system clearly not going to be known for its wintry side in our region. These area will turn to rain by the early afternoon hours
The rest of the region will quickly go to rain tomorrow morning , which will become steady and heavy at times Saturday afternoon with increasing northeast winds Saturday night into Sunday morning as the low intensifies off the coast
Above is Saturday morning, this is the wintry side of the storm, clearly not impressive at all , you can also see the increasing east-southeast winds bringing in warmer air
We get moderate to heavy precipitation by tomorrow afternoon which lasts through much of tomorrow night but its rain everywhere , and the heaviest is focused along the coast
Precipitation then exits Sunday morning, possibly ending as snow/sleet in NW NJ and NE PA as cold air wraps around the backend , very minor accumulations are possible
Overall anywhere from 0.50-1.50 inches of precipitation is expected, less interior most along the coast , most of this will be in the form of rain everywhere , along the coast where heavy rain falls minor flooding is possible and minor coastal flooding is possible with a prolonged and increasing easterly wind
The remainder of Sunday will be cloudy, and windy with some snow flurries throughout the area with falling temperatures , highs will likely be reached early in the morning in the mid 30s interior to low to mid 40s along the coast
Monday will be a clear and seasonable day with highs in the low 30s NE PA to low 40s along the coast ahead of our next system Tuesday into Wednesday , which could prove to be a nasty one with heavy rain and very strong winds area wide , again maybe a start-up as mix or snow over higher elevations but quick changeover to rain is expected
A strong low pressure will again track towards the Great Lakes with an associated occluded front impacting us Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning, we see a very strong jet streak out of the southeast with this which will for one make sure this isn’t a very wintry event but will bring in plenty of moisture setting up for a potential very heavy rain event , damaging winds will be possible but we have to see timing of when the primary low over the Great Lakes tries to transfer to the coast , the sooner it transfers the less wind we will have to deal with as the primary weakens , but if the blocking remains east based as its been a very nasty storm system is likely with heavy rain , strong damaging winds and coastal flooding , perhaps flooding due to rain as well. I’ll be tracking this as well throughout the weekend.
Hope you all have a good weekend.