Theres been a lot of buzz around about a potential winter storm and we are currently closely watching that storm system in the upper Midwest, at this time it looks like our forecast area will dodge a very big bullet here but we still have to watch closely over then ext 48 hours as it will be a very close call
The disturbance over the Midwest is expected to dive southeast , interact with the sub tropical jet and form a very strong coastal low somewhere in between Cape Hatteras and the Delmarva and then move either due east or east-northeast, which will make a huge difference , obviously the southern track would not impact our area too much but some of the latest models are showing the more northern solution and a low that tries to turn more northeast before exiting into the ocean
With either of these tracks, coastal flooding will be a huge issue with a slow-moving very strong storm moving south of the area and a strong high pressure to the north we will have a tight pressure gradient and thus a strong and long-lasting easterly flow which will produce moderate to major coastal flooding along the New Jersey and New York coastline Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday , the main question is do we get precipitation in our area from this or just a few cloudy cold and windy days?
The main thing this is going to come down to the strength of the block and high pressure to our north over Quebec, and right now given the strength of that block (it’s very strong, you can see on the satellite above it’s really blocking the weather pattern big time over the northeast) I am leaning towards more of a southern solution that doesnt impact most of the area with much in the way of rain/snow.
We also have a progressive pattern taking over so a strong trough coming into the west coast looks to try to push this whole 500 mb pattern due east
Latest model guidance
Howver the latest model guidance that just came out tries to slow down the progressive nature of the pattern which makes sense given the huge block over north Atlantic , and tries to weaken the block just enough to allow the storm to move north and east instead of due east which spreads moderate precipitation ( in the form of heavy wet snow for many) into the forecast area Wednesday night accompanied by strong winds
Right now if your along the coast prepare for major coastal flooding and strong east-northeast winds , if you’re in southern NJ (specifically south of Philadelphia) prepare for moderate to heavy precipitation (probably a sloppy mix) and a lot of wind and the rest of the forecast area just has to stay alert and keep an eye , as the potential is there a for a heavy wet snow event for locations just to the north and west of I95.
Like I said above im favoring the farther south solution for now given whats going on with the weather pattern but clearly we have something to watch for and as we get more data in I will update later today.