We have a strong disturbance currently dropping through the Midwest, this upper level disturbance will turn into a strong nor’easter over SE VA , which will move slowly to the East-Northeast bringing a variety of impacts from the Mid Atlantic to New England coastline. The area currently has anywhere from coastal flood warnings and high wind warnings along the coast to winter storm watches and warnings around Philadelphia and southern NJ which estend through southern PA to west VA ,DC and Baltimore
Tonight will just feature increasing clouds with winds shifting east and increasing , we will see rain and rain snow mix SLOWLY overspread the area from south to north, entering southern NJ early in the morning than up towards New York City between 12-3 pm , most of the area will start off as all or mainly rain besides NW NJ through interior SE PA where you will start off as a sloppy mixture
As we get heavier precipitation and the sun sets, the rain will change to snow across the whole area from Northwest to Southeast tomorrow night , the immediate coast of NJ to eastern LI will not se much snow accumulation , but along and especially northwest of I95 will likely see wet and accumulating snowfall much of tomorrow night
Above is my current thinking on snow amounts , I will probably put out a final map tomorrow afternoon as the models are not really much help here and there is just amazing disagreement being this close to the event so now casting is in order through the day tomorrow , but overall I feel pretty confident in these amounts and it’s basically a blend of all the models combined plus emphasis on high March Sun angle and a warm ground from temperatures in the 40s and 50s today and with such a track most of the forecast area will likely miss out on the best dynamics as the low will track a bit too far east, thus only a light to moderate and very sloppy snow event for a majority is expected at this time besides the southern Mid Atlantic through interior southeast and southern PA than again along the New England coast line.
Coastal flooding will be a big issue with prolonged east and northeast winds, along the coast 25-40 with gusts to 60 will drive in water off the Atlantic, with moderate to major flooding especially along the southern NJ (from Sandy Hook points south) and Delaware coast, with minor to moderate flooding Central NJ coast to Long Island.
I will look at tonight’s data and models and update either later tonight or tomorrow morning on this very complicated and volatile situation