Despite the fact that we are getting fairly deep into meteorological spring and about to enter astronomical spring, a winter like pattern is back in place after a pretty decent warm up we had from last weekend through early this week, this pattern looks to be stubborn and looks to remain in place through the remainder of March
Above is the current upper level pattern, we can see currently much of the country is actually under a warm and zonal flow basically from west to east and much of the country has been very warm this week with a good amount of record highs broken, with the exception of the Northeast that is.
A strong block over the Northwest Atlantic (negative NAO) combined with a deeply negative Arctic oscillation , specifically around Greenland is leading to trough development and a northwest flow out of Canada over the northeastern US which is leading to temperatures below average
Above is this weekend ,we can see the same general flow remains, we will see a clipper system roll through the area tomorrow with a mix of rain and snow showers, the best chance of precipitation will be over the Central PA through Philadelphia metro and southern NJ where a mix of rain and snow showers can be expected in the morning followed by scattered rain showers in the afternoon with highs generally in the mid 30s NE PA to the lower 40s along the coast
Sunday the cold front will drop south of the area with another chilly day in store and temperatures below average again in the mid 30s NE PA to low 40s along the coast and breezy conditions
On Monday we will see a disturbance from the polar jet stream begin to track towards the Great Lakes as our next trough comes into the picture , so the cold front that passes south on Saturday night will become a warm front and head north, we will see increasing clouds through the day Sunday and increasing chances of precipitation Monday , with a mix of rain and snow turning to rain Monday night through much of the area , but there will be the threat for some sleet and freezing rain in Northeast PA and Northwest NJ where light to moderate ice accumulation is possible before changeover
All areas will change to rain as temperatures rise into the upper 30s to mid 40s by Tuesday morning then into the low 40s interior to the mid to upper 40s near the coast , the rain will become steady and heavy at times through Tuesday night although there could be a break in the rainfall between the warm front and the cold front Tuesday afternoon
The initial low pressure will track towards the Great Lakes but transfer to a strong coastal low off of the New England coastline which will limit the amount of warm air advection , this transfer will also lead to lice little snowstorm for interior New Engalnd
The cold front will come through Tuesday night with rain ending, rainfall totals look to be 1-2 inches and some gusty winds , and this developing coastal low to our north (possibly noreaster) will set up for a very chilly and windy first day of Spring, which starts Wednesday , we will see clearing skies but temperatures stuck in the 30s through most of the area with lower 40s along the coast and the same could be said for Thursday
And the same general pattern remains in place through next weekend with temperatures dominantly below normal , now given the fact that we are headed towards mid to late March, and the polar vortex being over northwestern Canada we wont see any arctic and brutally cold temperatures, but we will see temperatures be a general 5-10 degrees below average throughout the forecast area. We will also have continued storm threats with an active polar jet stream and some help from the sub tropical jet stream as well.
Our chance to enter a truly warm pattern was from the 3rd week in February through this past week when the MJO was in phases 3-6 and convection was lacking around the dateline but with high latitude blocking remaining strong, we only saw a 4 day warm up, now we are in phase 7 and headed towards phase 8 and possibly into phase 1, this along with a stubborn negative NAO could mean there’s really no end in sight for this chilly weather pattern for the northeast, for the spring lovers out there the only hope over the next 2 weeks is if the negative NAO block shifts east, this would lead to the zonal/ridge flow in the western US and occasionaly the central US to come east bound.