For the first time this season we can say it feels somewhat like spring , the weather pattern which featured a large dip in the jet stream from the upper Midwest all the way to the Southeast US is slowly changing and moderating to a warmer weather pattern
Due to dying convection around the date line (180 W longitude) the pattern is turning more zonal across the country, we can see the flow across a vast majority of the country is from west-southwest to east-northeast, this type of pattern typically leads to temperatures above normal widespread, and that’s the case here especially along and west of the Mississippi River
As for our area we are still under the influence of a negative NAO and upper level low over the Canadian Maritime which is leaving the northeastern US in a northwest flow and thus temperatures remaining below average, although with the more zonal flow, 500 mb heights have been forced to rise so temperatures have been more near normal over the past few days then we have seen in a long time
We have also had some weak disturbances rotate through the area around the large upper level low so clouds and isolated to scattered showers have helped to keep temperatures slightly below average
Now Friday and Saturday will be very nice, and we wont have to deal with these disturbances so with these days full of sunny skies temperatures will finally rise to average levels, in the upper 40s to low 50s NE PA and mid to upper 50s along the coast for both days, could be an isolated 60 degree reading on Saturday in central and southwestern NJ , low will be in the mid to upper 20s NE PA to mid 30s along the coast
Sunday things will turn a bit more unsettled , a developing warm front near the Rockies will come east so for easter we will likely have increasing clouds and eventually showers by the afternoon with slightly colder temperatures in the upper 40s NE PA to the mid 50s along the coast,with clouds and rain overnight lows will not fall much, only into the mid to upper 30s NE PA to low to mid 40s along the coast, and behind the warm front and ahead of the cold front on Monday we will likely see the warmest day yet this spring with highs in th low 50s NE PA to lower 60s along the coast, before a cold front comes through Monday night and brings the spring warm up to rapid end, with lows falling into the 20s NE PA and lower to mid 30s along the coast , there will also be a slight chance of showers along the cold front Monday evening.
A majority of Easter Sunday looks to be dry just with increasing clouds, the chance of rain will come mid to late afternoon and the most rain will fall after sunset
Tuesday and Wednesday will feature a pretty sharp cool down behind the cold front with highs stuck in the 40s area wide , and perhaps upper 30s in some parts of NE PA and lows in the 20s widespread to lower 30s along the coast
No what happens after this is highly dependent on what happens in the northwest Atlantic , with a zonal Pacific flow one would argue for a warm eastern US , and some models show this as the block is shifted east slightly
Its going to be a battle between the zonal Pacific flow and the negative NAO and in order for the above normal warmth and Pacific air mass to get into the forecast area the block will have to shift east
Above you can see what happens if the block does not shift east enough, th northeast remains in a northwest flow with temperatures near to slightly below average , also in between the block and the zonal flow will be a tight temperature gradient , last nights model guidance showed this gradient being north of the forecast area with temperatures in the 60s and even 70s by next weekend, but this afternoons model guidance shows the temperature gradient over the forecast area next weekend with temperatures struggling in the 50s so the pattern will be very volatile for the forecast area, for a vast majority of the country the forecast is easy, tranquil conditions with temperatures above average but for the Northeast it will all depend on the block, if it shifts east enough you get the wall of Pacific warmth pouring in , if it remains strong and doesnt shift east much, forget about it we will see more of the same story, I expect the model guidance to really struggle with this but based on what I see with the block continuously modeled shifting east and weakening but not actually happening, I am leaning towards the cooler side of things for now with temperatures near to below average (although not as below average as we have been) from Tuesday through next weekend, the good news is it should be a relatively quiet weather pattern.