We continue to be in what has been a long stretch of below normal temperatures today with the region again stuck in the 30s and 40s today, the good news is today will be the coldest of the next 7 with gradually warming temperatures, the bad news is the warmth is likely to come with consequences ( unsettled and wet weather)
Lows tonight will drop into the 20s for most of the area besides the immediate coast line under clear skies and a breezy but diminishing northwest wind, tomorrow our temperatures will rebound to on;y slightly below normal instead of well below , in the upper 40s NE PA to mid 50s long the coast
Tomorrow night we will have increasing clouds as a storm system approaches from the south with lows in the lower 30s NE PA to the upper 30s along the coast
The storm now looks to pass too far south and east to really impact the area with the progressive nature of the pattern and a continued strong block over the North Atlantic but will still bring a cloudy day on Friday with showers, more organized towards the coast and only isolated to scattered showers inland, these clouds and showers will keep temperatures in the 40s to around 50 degrees for highs , lows Friday night will fall into the upper 20s NE PA to mid to upper 30s along the coast with clearing skies
Behind the storm on Saturday, we will see continued clearing but also a northwest wind so temperatures will again be below normal in the mid 40s NE PA to lower to mid 50s along the coast, overall wont be a bad day just colder than it should be with a chilly breeze
Sunday is when the real moderation begins, our storm system will be well northeast and as the flow turns zonal we will see a clipper track north of us, there could be an isolated shower especially over NE PA and the Hudson Valley but for the most part the area will see dry conditions with partly to mostly cloudy skies and a southwest wind, temperatures rising into the lower to mid 50s NE PA to upper 50s lower 60s along the coast
Monday and especially Tuesday and Wednesday is going to be a very tricky forecast, we will see a front stall out over the Mid Atlantic/Northeast and a battle between warm Pacific air trying to come in from the west, and a polar marine air mass trying to come in from the block over the north Atlantic
Monday the front looks to b north of the area so temperatures will likely be similar to Sundays with a slight chance of showers
But on Tuesday the front may drop south, this would lead to a tight temperature gradient over the forecast area, New York City could be struggling in the 50s with showers while Philadelphia and southern NJ are basking in the 60s and even maybe 70 degrees
If the front does stall over the forecast area Wednesday would likely be a wet day with again a tight temperature gradient with New York struggling in the low 50s while Philadelphia warms into the 60s
This forecast is highly dependent on where the front stalls, if it lingers north of the forecast area all of next week will be very warm and quite nice, but if it stalls over the forecast area we will see unsettled weather and some chilly conditions for NE PA and the NYC metro, and perhaps our southern friends enjoying some spring warmth, with the strong nature of the upper level low over the Northwest Atlantic and the way this spring is going so far I am leaning towards the wet and chilly side of things for now.
Middle and especially late week we have to watch a potential storm system that may track towards the Great Lakes, if it does so that would allow the warmth to overspread the area mid to late week before the associated cold front comes through, if it tracks farther east and more towards the coast the less of a chance we have of warming up too much.