First we have a storm system developing off the southeast coast, this wont impact the area much but will put cloudy skies, and easterly flow and the chance for showers along the coast for tonight and Wednesday, with temperatures struggling in the 50s for highs and lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s.
A cold front will follow on Thursday, especially towards Thursday night with scattered to widespread showers , ahead of this cold front temperatures will rise into the upper 50s to mid 60s for highs on Thursday
This will introduce another cool shot for Friday through the weekend with temperatures below normal , with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s and lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s , this wont be a real chilly air mass, just enough to keep things on the colder side of where it should be , which is now in the mid to upper 60s for highs and 40s for lows
Now, the weather pattern since mid January has featured a trough over the Central and eastern US , over the past 2 weeks we have had a few breaks in the pattern with a couple of transient yet powerful ridges with a couple of nice warm ups, with many areas having exceeded 70 on several occasions over the past 2 weeks, however the powerful cold front that came through on Friday has reset the same pattern with a dip in the jet stream over the eastern US and chilly weather conditions.
With the MJO heading weakly into phases 8-1 , a ridge is expected to develop in the western US , this will lead to a continued trough over the east through the next 10 days or so , this will cut off any big warm ups and keep temperatures near or below average dominantly through the upcoming weeks , we also have abundant snow cover over the northern Plains and Canada which has been helping to keep the warm air south for the most part , and until this melts away these polar air masses will likely continue to drop south.
Another fly in the ointment is potential cut off low pressure systems, with a persistent trough in the east Pacific, a ridge over the Plains and Western US and a ridge over eastern Canada (in response to the trough over the east Pacific/ immediate west coast), there is potential for areas of low pressure and upper level lows to cut off from the jet stream and just linger over the eastern US , this would add insult to injury as not only would it be chilly but now raw and wet as well, although quite frankly its been a little on the dry side so a rainy pattern wouldn’t hurt, this is the time of year we need things to stay saturated so when summer heat finally comes along, we don’t have to worry about drought.
These types of patterns could be tricky with cut off lows , these lows tend to just meander around , so each one would just have to be watched as they come along, the first of which has the potential to impact late this weekend into early next week.
So basically as we head through the last week of April and into May, a persistent pattern of near to below normal temperatures can be expected and we will have to watch to see if the pattern becomes active and wet in the coming days.
I do not think we will be seeing temperatures well below normal , as the building ridge to our west will eventually cut off some of the cold air from dropping south, but cool enough to keep people in the Northeast wondering, where is the warmth?