A ridge that has been baking the Plains , Rockies and Southwest US is moving east today and it expected to give us a period of hot and humid weather from Sunday through much of the coming week
A warm front is currently moving north of the area as the center of the ridge moves over then just off the east coast, which would put of on the western side and with clockwise flow around high pressure we will see a southwest flow beginning today and lasting through the week as the ridge stays in place for a while
As of now it does not appear that heat wave criteria is likely , which would be 3 or more consecutive days of 90+ degrees, although there is a chance for the warmest urban locations like Philadelphia/SW NJ and areas of NE NJ especially , the only reason this does not look like an actual heat wave is because there will be disturbances each afternoon that could trigger clouds and scattered thunderstorms
We see by Monday a large ridge is in place basically from the southern Plains to the Northeast, but with some upper level disturbances around and ther hot humid air scattered showers and storms are a threat
On Wednesday this ridge is still deeply in place , but starting to break down slightly
The best potential for areas to hit 90 degrees plus will be Monday as heights peak over us , the other days look like most of the area will be in the mid to upper 80s which wouldn’t be all that bad but humidity will be in place which will make it feel like the mid 90s for many , the best potential for some isolated locations to hit heatwaves criteria would be Sunday through Tuesday , if somehow these disturbances on the models don’t work out and don’t produce storms we could see the second widespread heat wave of the summer of 2013, that does not look likely at this time.
Whether this turns out to be a heat wave or not, hot sticky weather is expected , but nothing out of the ordinary or brutal is expected we will then see a gradual down trend in temperatures from Wednesday on and the ridge breaks down and a trough moves into the east, I expect this upcoming trough will be long-lasting as the MJO has been the main player here and it’s currently in phases which support a ridge over the east, which we are seeing now, and is quickly expected to go into phases that support a dip in the jet stream over the Northeast
We see by the time we get to next weekend day period a deep trough is in place over the east from late June into July with the potential for below average temperatures and a wet/active weather pattern , its shown on the models and is highly supported by the MJO .