A very stormy week throughout the forecast area, with a lot of rainfall , severe weather and even some tornadoes, has given way to a perfect start to this summer holiday weekend
We see there is an impressive ridge of high pressure just off the east coast, an area of strong moisture transport just to the west of the forecast area and a trough in the middle of the country, through the week we were under that strong moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico in between the big Bermuda high and the very deep trough for this time of year over the Midwest , the pattern is actually retrograding westward as the Atlantic ridge expands and the center moves a bit westward towards our coastal waters, this pushes the boundary in between the ridge and the trough to the west and thus we are now under full control of the Atlantic ridge rather than the unsettled weather with the trough , the southwest flow up the coast continues to transport in very tropical like humidity but under control of the ridge thunderstorm development is being severely suppressed for the most part
We will see this general theme continue through Monday , with hot and very humid conditions yet mostly dry, we will see highs in the low to mid 90s just away from the immediate coast and also just away from the high elevations of NE PA , coastal areas under the influence from the Atlantic and folks in the high elevations will see highs in the mid to upper 80s with high humidity with heat indices anywhere from the lower to mid 90s in “cooler” locations to the lower 100s elsewhere as we continue to see a southwest flow and continue to be under the influence of this huge Bermuda high , lows will generally be a very humid mid 60s in higher elevations to mid 70s along the coast. I cannot rule out the formation of an isolated thunderstorm, and if these do develop they will have good potential to get strong to severe but this threat will be very isolated and confined to northwest sections, basically perfect beach weather for the 4th of July weekend.
Of course though considering we live in the “prevailing westerlies” what goes west must eventually come east, so we will see that boundary come back east starting Monday afternoon and see the storm chances increase once again, as the high pressure weakens, we will not be nearly as stormy as we were this past week but as the front comes east we will see the potential for scattered storms which could contain very heavy downpours come back into the picture starting Monday night and lasting through Wednesday . we will continue to be under this hot and humid air mass with highs anywhere from the mid 80s to mid 90s with very high humidity , lows generally in the low to mid 70s besides higher elevations.
As a trough tries to come east we will see unsettled weather continue through the end of the week with the chance for afternoon/evening pop up but scattered storms , cool down slightly in the 80s area wide by Friday but the humidity will remain in place .