We had a very wet June, record wettest in some cases, and a very wet start to July, over the past 5 days however we finally caught a break in the rainfall department and actually had a pretty perfect holiday weekend, sure it was hot/humid but that’s what most of us look for on the 4th of July weekend , but our stormy pattern is to return as seen today with some isolated to scattered storms
What happened was the large Atlantic ridge seen above was in such a spot that led to deep moisture transport up the east coast earlier last week and really through much of June, it actually built west and forced that boundary to go well west of us but now with the ridge beginning to go back east that boundary between the tropical air mass with the Bermuda high and a cooler drier air mass coming in with an approaching trough we will see a more cloudy, stormy unsettled pattern develop starting tomorrow but not really peeking until Thursday/Friday
For Tuesday I expect just some scattered activity, a bit more widespread than today’s but not by much , and we will see continuation of the hot/humid weather with highs ranging from the mid 80s to low 90s , a mostly sunny to partly sunny day is expected overall with thunderstorm chances increasing during the late afternoon hours but again very hit or miss in nature
On Wednesday as the frontal boundary crawls east we will see increased cloud cover , more widespread showers and storms which will lead to highs generally in the 80s area wide, upper 70s NE PA to mid 80s closer to the coast but the humidity will be on the increase so it will still feel muggy despite cooler temperatures
The disturbance that may fire up storms tomorrow is currently over the Great lakes drifting southeast, it is expected to weaken as ridging will remain dominant tomorrow
Thursday as the boundary stalls just to our west we can expect widespread showers and storms , especially in the afternoon , widespread heavy rain is expected with the return for flooding potential as training storms become and is expected to peak out late Thursday afternoon through Friday morning, the potentially is there for widespread 1-3 inches of rain during this period
The cold front is expected to move east of the area by Friday night which will lead to a brief cool/drier air mass with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s Friday-Sunday and lows in the upper 50s in coolest locations to mid to upper 60s else where , this will likely be short-lived as we see a ridge over Plains try to expand east and a Atlantic ridge which may potentially merge and make for a very hot late July time period.