We are back up and running here , and over the past 7-10 days there has been a striking pattern change , as we went from a prolonged hot/humid regime due to a powerful Atlantic ridge to now a dominant trough in the east with active weather and intrusions of cool dry polar air masses , due to changes in the Pacific, namely the PDO switching from negative to positive , which allows a trough to develop around the Aleutian islands instead of in the Gulf of Alaska like we’ve been seeing, this leads to general ridging in the western US and troughiness in the Central/Eastern US
However the Atlantic ridge is still very well there and will continue to have at least some influence on our weather, which will help send up a warm front from the south starting tonight , with a strong and dominant trough over Eastern Canada trying to send down polar air masses and the Atlantic ridge trying to send up a tropical like air mass, we will see a very active end to the week as the front will be forced to stall in this battle zone, which is right over the forecast area , starting tonight we will see isolated to scattered showers trying to invade from the south with the behttps://northeasternnjwx.wordpress.com/wp-admin/post-new.php?post_type=postst chance of rain over southern areas, which will slowly spread northward tomorrow, the front will likely stall over or just north of the forecast area which will lead to a southeasterly flow and the introduction of high humidity and a slightly more unstable air mass which will lead to the threat for heavy rain/thunderstorms starting tomorrow night and lasting through Friday night with temperatures below seasonable levels for highs and near normal lows to slightly above normal at night-time, highs generally in the mid 70s to low 80s, lows in the low 60s high elevations to mid 60s to around 70 elsewhere
Disturbances will ride along this stalled front, most activity will be scattered in nature so while not all areas will be hit everyday, it will be very slow-moving and with a tropical like air mass trying to filter in any activity will have potential to produce impressive rainfall rates and thus flash flooding will be a moderate to high risk, the wettest and most active day looks to be Thursday night into Friday at this time, the potential is there for widespread 1-3 inches of rain in this time period with isolated higher amounts likely
The top image is tonight into tomorrow, bottom image is Friday so you can see the front just lingers around the area with the threat for scattered showers/storms each day, gradually becoming more widespread as we head towards Friday
On Saturday we could see some clearing which could lead to a pretty hot/humid day (mid to upper 80s for most, depending on what the front decides to do) before the front drops south again Sunday introducing another cool dry Polar air mass with below average temperatures becoming likely again, so in short the summer pattern is already breaking down and leading to more of an autumn like weather pattern. We will see this pattern continue over the next 7-10 days with some ups and downs, some shots of humidity and some shots of active weather with stalled frontal systems as this battle continues but generally expecting below seasonable temperatures through the period.