Since there’s nothing really exciting to talk about in the short range today’s post will focus on the longer range
Over the past 10 days or so we have seen that the summer pattern that was in place from June through much of July is already breaking down , we will see this break down of the pattern continue this week
We had a cold front sweep through the area yesterday morning which has swept out the humidity that was in place and has bought in a cool refreshing polar air mass with temperatures slightly below normal and low humidity levels , we will see this general them through the next 7 days with the exception of Tuesday as a disturbance will come through with increasing humidity and the chance for scattered showers/storms
Looking towards Autumn:
We see the general pattern features a large ridge in the west and a dip in the jet over the east, this is a big change from a few weeks back when a large western Atlantic ridge bout us plenty of heat and humidity in late June-July, this is due to pretty big changes going on in the Pacific , namely a switch from a negative PDO phase, which features below average sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Alaska, typically leads to a trough in the Gulf of Alaska and down towards the west coast and general ridging in the east , a positive PDO features above average SSTs in the Gulf of Alaska which supports ridging in the west, troughs in the east, we can see the deep trough over the Aleutians which is indicative of a positive PDO/-EPO pattern
Another thing is very cold stratosphere departures over the Atlantic which supported the large Bermuda high are breaking down and thus the ridge is breaking down, and shifting east.
Above are current stratospheric anomalies (credit to Steve DiMartino and nynjpaweather.com for this image) and we see there ware a lot of warm anomalies around but the warmest anomalies are pointed more towards eastern Europe which would support a majority of the polar/arctic air masses to go that way as this would support a deep trough towards China, still though there are warm anomalies pointed towards the eastern US as well which would point to a trough but more of a weak one with more in the way of modified polar air masses this fall , of course this is something that can change rather quickly but if this remains the same we would be dealing with a fall that features more like slightly below average temperatures rather than well below average temperatures.
So generally speaking as we head towards the autumn months this is the pattern I expect, temperatures near to below average overall speaking , some active spells , but of course with the ENSO continuing to be neutral there will be times when the trough near the Aleutians breaks down due to variable and changing MJO phases, I especially expect this in September where we may see pretty big swings in temperature, sub surface sea temperatures in ENSO regions however are well above normal so it would seem likely that we will enter at least a warm neutral phase if not a weak El nino as we head deeper into the fall months which would support MJO phases in 7-8-1 and more established pattern of a trough in the eastern US with cool unsettled conditions rather than MJO staying near neutral along with the ENSO regions.
The MJO is basically where convection is most established in the ITCZ , and warmer waters in the ENSO regions support the convection being most established in the Pacific (which is considered phases 7-8-1) and this again supports the trough around the Aleutians, ridging in the western US and troughs in the east .
On this page I have more detailed explanations about the teleconnections and how they impact our weather , as we head towards fall/winter these terms will start to be used a lot more. https://northeasternnjwx.wordpress.com/teleconnections/
So while we will have to watch as time goes on there is strong support right now for the end of summer and much of fall to be cooler than normal and likely wetter than normal.