This week the weather pattern features a large dip in the jet stream over the East and Central US which is leading to a northwesterly flow transporting in a pretty powerful polar air mass for this time of year, most areas dropped anywhere from the mid 40s to the mid 50s for lows last night and tonight’s lows will be quite similar , this trough will stick with us through the weekend which will lead to the same general theme of below average temperatures, although as the trough slowly begins to lift out over the next few days we will see slowly moderating conditions
We can see the big dip in the jet which will lead to generally clear skies with temperatures ranging from the mid 70s to around 80 for most over the next 3 days and lows in the lower to mid 50s NE PA to the upper 50s to mid 60s elsewhere between Friday and Monday , there will be a slight increase in humidity starting Sunday but will generally stay comfortable but will make for gradually warming night time lows through the period
We will see a bit of a pattern change which will place us back into a summer like pattern, on the extreme eastern side of the satellite there is a large area of dry sinking air moving westward, this will help to rejuvenate the Bermuda high , meanwhile in the Pacific we will see the strong trough that is near the Aleutian islands which is one of the main drivers of the pattern shift east ward, given the neutral ENSO phase and the general neutral to weakly influencing MJO this makes sense as there is really nothing to stop the weather pattern from moving, so as this trough shifts east towards Alaska /western coast of the US early next week we will see more of a zonal flow across much of the country, this combined with the Bermuda high making a bit of a comeback will make things warm/humid in the east starting next Tuesday and lasting through probably the remainder of August , now we are not talking any major heat wave or anything but temperatures will rebound into mainly the mid to upper 80s with humidity levels on the increase which is slightly above average , and with the warm humid period will come the threat of the return of an active pattern, but we will see about that once the time comes.
We can see the general pattern chance expected, on the left is the ECMWF the right is the GFS for days 7-10, I do believe the GFS is over doing the ridge big time as we will see MJO weakly in phases 8-1 which should prevent this ridge of high pressure from getting excessively strong which is one of the reasons I don’t see many if any areas actually hitting heat wave criteria, along with the lowering sun angle etc.
But regardless summer is not ready to give up and we will clearly see summer like conditions starting next week and again this may very well last through the last 10 days or so of August with a general theme of slightly above normal temps and modest to high humidity