We have entered a weather pattern over the past 1-2 weeks that provides basically the perfect ideal autumn conditions over the Northeastern US
While we see the continuation of a large ridge and summer like warmth over the center of the country (due to the MJO shifting into phases 4-5) , a strong developing negative NAO block is blocking up the pattern over the east, keeping a nice trough and northerly flow in place with dominant Canadian high pressure, and with high pressure in place we are getting chilly nights but also with sinking air and full sunshine, comfortable and mild days . If it wasn’t for the NAO block we would be in a very warm weather pattern in the east right now but that is obviously not the case.
This pattern will remain in place through Sunday, with highs generally in the mid to upper 60s NE PA , lower to mid 70s elsewhere and lows in the lower to mid 40s NE PA , upper 40s to mid 50s elsewhere alone with crystal clear skies for the most part, besides today with a bit of a disturbance passing by with some clouds around.
The only monkey wrench in the forecast right now is the low pressure system currently near the west coast of Florida, this is expected to develop into a sub tropical system once it gets near the Gulf stream , and with the strong block in place on place over the North Atlantic it is expected to retrograde to the NW towards the coast , the question is how far can it retrograde before a trough comes east and steers the storm north and east? Right now it appears more than likely that the pattern will be too progressive across the US to allow this storm to get close enough to have much impact on us, besides some gusty wind/rough seas along the coast Sunday night and Monday but still its something to keep an eye on, other than this for the most part the next 7 days are looking dry and cool with temps near to below normal , just with a slight chance that we may have a coastal low influencing our weather early in the week but again it is highly unlikely we see more than some clouds and perhaps some breezy conditions/minor coastal flooding issues along the coast line due to a pressure gradient between the NAO block and the storm system.