We certainly have one heck of an “Indian summer” setting up this year with most locations in the 80s right now and for some the 2nd consecutive day in the 80s , this general theme of above average warmth wont be going anywhere but we are going to start adding rain and potentially a lot of it into the equation starting Friday and going through next week.
We see a large, broad ridge of high pressure from the southern Plains all the way into the Northeast, this has led to winds shifting to the WSW , add in the fact that its been very dry and the ground is very dry and we have a nice little Indian summer.
This ridge will control our weather from now through much of next week, tomorrow will remain dry with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s area wide but the trough in the west will gradually swing east bound and with that we will start to see a prolonged period of unsettled weather set up as the trough moves very slowly to the east , starting later on Friday as an area of low pressure tracks towards the Great Lakes we will see a warm front drive through the area with scattered showers , mostly from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning and the showers will be more numerous over the NW interior and more isolated along the coast and southern sections, the added clouds will keep temperatures down just a bit.
On Saturday we will see the warm front go north of us with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s under somewhat clearing skies but the chance for isolated showers will remain and the same can be said for Sunday, mix of clouds and sun with a chance of isolated showers, overall not to bad of a weekend but just may have to dodge a shower here and there, lows will be in the mid 50s to low 60s.
Later on Sunday and especially Monday we should see a cold front attempt to move through the area which will result in more widespread showers and even a thunderstorm
Then for Tuesday we have to watch a tropical entity that may be absorbed into the cold front and move up the coast , this would lead to rain, heavy at times continuing through Tuesday and possible even into early Wednesday if this happens
After that it looks like we should get a break by early Wednesday through Saturday but as another trough drops into the Midwest we will continue to see overall mild conditions with a ridge remaining over the east, just slightly cooler next week with the addition of clouds and rain with highs generally ranging from the low 70s to around 80 or so. Next weekend we will have to watch another potential storm system as the pattern becomes more amplified over the US , and it looks like we may very well have to wait till middle October to truly see October like weather.