The pattern over the eastern US is about take a pretty drastic turn, from warm and dry over the past 7-10 days to very wet, active and cool pattern this week, and we will start it off today with a potential severe weather out break over the Northeast
A strong cold front is approaching from the west, it has a good punch with it , with some of the remnant moisture from Karen entrained, (speaking of Karen it was a very big fail on my part calling for a tropical storm to make landfall , as we all know it ended up weakening to a depression and now it’s not even considered tropical and it never made landfall, I relied too much on model guidance and the NHC .
But this is a very strong cold front with a nice squall line developing on the eastern edge, we will see winds increase from the south today generally 15-20 mph with gusts 30+ this afternoon ahead of the front along with increasing chance for showers and storms, with a strong low-level jet there is the potential for some strong to severe storms, to be honest if it stays as cloudy and showery as it is for much longer like it looks like it will, I believe the tornado watch and risk of severe weather the SPC put out will bust especially north of Philadelphia, Philly on south has a better chance of clearing and thus a better chance of severe storms but considering that they issued the watches I feel like I should advertise it on here.
The impacts from this front will peak from 4 PM through 9 pm from west to east, I believe the main threat here is heavy rain/wind but should we get strong or severe storms there is the potential for an isolated spin up and perhaps some hail , and of course damaging wind, like I said above I would really like to see more clearing/sunshine before I buy into this though. This cold front and the associated low-level jet should be enough to sustain and develop strong thunderstorms, I am just skeptical about the severe side of this
Here is what the SPC posted for severe weather potential for our area today , the highest threat is damaging wind and again the best potential for severe weather will start around 3-4 pm for western sections then spread east through 8-9 pm.
I will update as the day goes on, especially if things start to turn ugly. And there is much more to talk about for later this week as well so stay tuned!