After a late fall or even at times early winter like chill over the past 5-7 days, there’s a nice warm up in sight as we will gradually moderate to near and then above normal levels this week, starting Wednesday and lasting through Saturday
For today we have a cold front coming through that will reinforce the chilly air mass so ahead of it today highs will be in the mid 50s to low 60s but will quickly crash into the mid 20s to low 30s for most of the area by tomorrow morning, and tomorrows highs will struggle in the upper 40s to mid 50s , lows tomorrow night will follow suite with tonight’s/tomorrow mornings lows
However, on Wednesday we will see a storm begin to develop over the Plains, we will eventually see a pretty powerful storm develop, and a phase over the Plains means this is going towards the Great Lakes, which will mean a developing southwest wind and rising heights and thus rising temperatures for the east coast.
Wednesday should feature temperatures near average with highs in the middle 50s to low 60s with a chance of isolated showers, especially north and west with a warm front and a few weak disturbances that will be coming through and lows will fall into the upper 30s to low 40s NW interior to mid to upper 40s elsewhere under clouds
For Halloween while there may be some cloudy skies to contend with, temperatures will moderate to above average levels as a warm front moves north of the area with highs in the lower to mid 60s , if there ends up being more sun it could be an even milder , I have to mention the threat of an isolated shower between the warm front to the north and cold front to the west, but this should mostly be confined to north-west areas and should be few and far between
Thursday night could become a bit more iffy but should hold off until well after trick or treating is over, so the kids will likely get a well deserved decent Halloween this year , after the previous 2 years with Halloween being “cancelled” between a freak snowstorm in 2011 and a freak hurricane/super storm last year they deserve it for sure.
Friday has the potentially to be a very stormy day as we see a very strong low track towards the Great Lakes (somewhere between 975-980 mb) , this will drive a powerful cold front through the area , ahead of the cold front will come a strong low-level jet which should lead to increasing winds Thursday night, widespread showers and maybe even a thunderstorm can be expected Friday with winds 20-30 mph with gusts 50-60 mph in the heavy rain/thunderstorms, there is some timing issues on the models, some want to bring the peak in on late Thursday night and early Friday while others hold it off until Friday afternoon into Saturday so for now im going to keep the rain likely through the day Friday and perhaps into early Saturday morning as this will be a slow-moving front, overall this will bring much-needed rain but the winds could cause some isolated problems, I want to draw the attention to the bottom left image which shows the Low level jet, and any heavier rains or storms will be able to tap into those widespread 55-65 knot winds aloft and bring them to the surface
The mild conditions will likely last into Saturday but starting Saturday night another strong polar air mass will be injected into the area, bringing in another episode of below average temperatures from the 2nd half of the weekend through early next week, with highs in the mid 40s to low 50s and lows in the 20s and 30s starting Sunday and lasting through at least next Tuesday or so.