October for a good portion of that area has been very dry, and for the NYC metro/LI/NE and Central NJ its been very dry over the past 2-3 months with departures being 6-8 inches below average since late July, it looks like we will finally get at least some much-needed rain with a storm system expected to impact between Thursday night and Friday afternoon
This morning we had a cold front come through with a bit of reinforcing polar air mass which is keeping highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s, and at least one more chilly night before a nice warm up takes hold with lows by tomorrow morning in the mid 30s to low 40s
Wednesday will feature some increasing clouds, with the best chance of sunshine likely being in the morning, a warm front should lead to mostly cloudy conditions during the afternoon though with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s, and lows in the lower to mid 40s interior, mid to upper 40s along the coast
Halloween should feature at least decent weather, not going to be the nicest day but temperatures will be in the 60s for most for highs, we will likely see cloudy skies and a chance of isolated showers in the afternoon and increasing in coverage as the night goes on, but for trick or treating time it should be mostly dry with isolated showers around the area, especially for areas like Northern NJ/NE PA and upstate NY as a warm front approaches
Above are images , top one being Thursday afternoon bottom one being Thursday evening and we see there’s some precipitation but its light and pretty spotty in nature for our forecast area , temperatures during trick or treating time should be in the mid to upper 50s for most of the area, it could be breeze with south winds 10-20 mph too.
Late Thursday night/early Friday morning is when the peak impact will begin, with the chance of showers increasing and becoming widespread by sunrise Friday, we will see increasing southerly winds as a powerful low pressure tracks northwest of us with rain becoming steadier and heavier with some isolated thunderstorms
With a powerful system like this winds will be at least an isolated issue, I don’t think 50+ mph wind gusts will be as widespread as shown above but there will be isolated areas , especially those impacted by any embedded thunderstorm that will get winds in excess of 50 mph out of this , I expect at the very least winds of 15-25 mph with gusts up to 40 even without thunderstorms.
Temperatures on Friday will likely be in the lower to mid 60s for interior, maybe some upper 60s for urban locations some forecasts are showing low 70s for some areas but with clouds and rain, can’t really see that happening , if there ends up being even just some sun I could see temperatures pushing 70 but that doesn’t look likely right now.
The storm/cold front will exit Friday evening, with clearing skies, the cold air behind it will be delayed a bit so Saturday temperatures will be near to slightly above average before a much cooler air mass takes place Sunday through early next week, with the EPO ridge breaking down though we will likely see a roller coaster ride of temperatures for the first 7-15 days of November with a bit of a break in the overall weather pattern, we should see the return of overall below average temps beyond the 10th-15th of November.