Today a strong storm system is developing over the Plains/Midwest, we have a warm front draped through the area, originally we were expecting mostly dry this afternoon for trick or treaters but that appears to be changing with an area of light to moderate rain/drizzle forming over PA and moving ENE along the warm front, this rain will impact eastern PA , it appears into much of Northern NJ, perhaps clipping NYC and points NW, southern areas like Central NJ and especially southern NJ points south may escape this with just some scattered showers and drizzle
The warm front should jump north tonight as the low tracks through the Great Lakes, this will give way to steadily increasing southerly winds tonight with increasing showers and rain, especially as we get towards the late night hours although it looks like N & W portions will stay pretty wet between now and then
The trailing cold front will slowly track east and northeast, winds will increase to 15-25 mph out of the SW with gusts over 40 at times after midnight, and tomorrow morning as the bulk of the storm comes through 20-30 mph winds out of the SW with gusts exceeding 50 in heavy rain/thunderstorms, highest winds will be along the coast. There could be some localized damage and power outages, and it would be a good idea to get out there tonight and bring in Halloween decorations.
The rainfall from this system according to model guidance is expected to weaken somewhat so the rain amounts wont be very high, with a general 1/3-3/4 of an inch of rain expected for most of the area , with locally up to 1-1.25 inches over NE/Central PA, the big story should be the wind
Above is the latest model wind gusts for the peak of the storm tomorrow morning, although there are 30-40 mph gusts possible well before this time, I don’t think 50-60 mph gusts will be this widespread but none the less will be a threat especially for coastal areas
This will all clear out tomorrow afternoon with breezy SW winds turning NW and a cooler air mass coming in for Saturday and the coldest air mass of the season so far for Sunday and Monday. There after another warm up is expected for much of next week as we enter a roller coaster ride of temperatures