The general theme for the month of November has been ups and downs in temperature (although more downs than ups) but it finally looks like we will have an air mass that will lock into place for more than 2-3 days starting this weekend, unfortunately for those that don’t like winter this prolonged air mass will not make you very happy.
For the next 3-4 days we will continue to be on this roller coaster ride with lows 40s today transitioning to mid to upper 40s tomorrow, than lower to mid 50s by Friday and Saturday, this will feel very warm but really its only near to maybe slightly above the averages we would expect in late November, lows through the period will start in the mid 20s to low 30s mostly then moderate to 40s for most by Friday night/early Saturday morning lows. The period will begin dry with sunshine Thursday and increasing clouds Friday, however as an arctic cold front works south isolated to scattered showers are possible Friday night into Saturday afternoon, this arctic front will bring in a very cold, wintry air mass that will last throughout the whole holiday week/weekend. This cold front may feature some isolated snow showers or snow flurries especially for areas like NE PA Saturday afternoon/evening but no accumulation is expected and this will be very isolated, just enough to remind us winter is near.
Starting Sunday and really through Thanksgiving temperatures will average well below normal and stay in the general range of upper 20s to low 30s NE PA , to mid 30s to around 40 along the coast for highs , Sunday will likely be very windy with NW winds 15-25 with gusts 30+. A cold front is possible Tuesday which could bring some rain and snow showers to the area
Then depending on how exactly the pattern sets up and if we can get a decent negative NAO block going, there is a storm potential showing up for the Wednesday time period, if everything goes right this would be a strong coastal low with significant (and likely wintry) effects for much of the area. Todays models have moved it more out to sea but considering this is the best pattern we have been in for a storm in a really long time its something to watch for sure, as model performance has been nothing short of horrible lately anyway, not to say this is going to happen , it’s too early to say for sure but something to keep in the back of your mind if you plan in travelling Wednesday, of course should this become a legit threat we will try to keep updating as much as possible. Given the pattern/pattern change there should be a storm somewhere, question is , is it along the coast or out to sea?