We certainly have a very interesting 5-7 days of weather coming up as we see arctic cold come down and give us well below average temperatures, even below the averages we would see in the dead of winter starting Saturday night and of course the increasing storm chance for Tuesday night through Thanksgiving morning with more brutal cold to follow that
Starting off today we have a strong cold front to our west coming east , this is initially leading to SW winds and mid temps ahead of it but with that are clouds and showers, one wave has come through this morning, one more is expected this afternoon especially for southern parts of the area, and mostly south of New York City
We can see the one wave coming through now, another developing over Ohio, the northern part of that wave is expected to dry out and weaken coming east die to dry air coming in but it will probably be a wet evening commute for southern areas
What’s more interesting is the storm over the desert SW but we will get into that later on
The cold front and showers will be gone by 8-10 pm for most, lingering the longest along the coast, followed by clearing skies and lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s for most of the area, tomorrow will feature a mix of sun and clouds with highs in the upper 30s to mod 40s, mostly dry but cant rule out an isolated rain/snow showers especially for NE PA as a strong NW wind becomes established we can’t rule out that some isolated lake effect precipitation makes it way into our area, and this will be the theme for Sunday too expect all locations till struggle to exceed freezing on Sunday and lows will be in the middle 10s to low 20s for most, lower teens in valleys and isolated high elevations, again these temps are even below average if we were in middle January right now. Generally speaking Monday will feature similar weather, temperatures and all.
Tuesday will begin to moderate a bit as a cold front makes it way though with highs climbing all the to the upper 30s to mid 40s for highs and isolated rain/snow showers. This cold front is expected to stall or linger off the coast, while the disturbance over the desert SW moves towards the SE and a polar jet disturbances comes south they may potentially meet over the SE US and lead to a nice littler nor’easter for the busiest travel day of the year!
So if this phase does happen what we get is a developing are if low pressure over the SE US and precipitation begins spreading into the area early Wednesday morning
It will gradually become moderate to heavy and peak Wednesday afternoon and evening, storm with strong east-northeast winds will be pretty quick mover without much of a block in place, the storm will then gradually wind down and exit to the northeast.
Trying to figure out who is going to get what is the hardest part because as this storm is coming north there’s cold air coming in from the northwest and of course we have to deal with evaporation cooling and dynamic cooling with the heavy precipitation, im going to make up some maps this weekend once we know for sure that this is coming but just some of my general thinking
Coastal areas (along and SE of I95) Mostly if not an all rain and wind storm with maybe some mixing of snow towards the end
NW I95 ( Philly NW burbs to suburban NYC/NE NJ to Central and southwest CT- Mostly rain/wind, some mixing of snow is likely and perhaps some minor accumulation towards the end of the storm
Interior (NW NJ , NE PA Central PA through NW CT) Start off as either rain or mixture of rain and snow, slowly transition to snow as the heaviest precipitation comes in , very good chance at accumulating snow and a white Thanksgiving