We are waking up on this November morning to temperatures that are below averages for the peak of winter as an arctic cold front passed through with snow squalls , lows in the 10s to around 20 , todays highs wont rise too much as mostly 20s are expected area wide with low 20s NE PA , upper 20s to around 30 along the coastline , tonight’s lows will be in the upper 0s to lower 1os NE PA , upper 10s to around 20 along the coast and mid to upper 10s elsewhere. Winds today will be out of the north 20-30 mp with gusts up to 40 expected all day but will wind down tonight.
Tomorrow will be slightly better than today with highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s area wide and bit less wind, still breezy with winds 10-20 mph but not as brutal as today lows will also be milder in the upper 10s to mid 20s
Tuesday is when things become interesting
That storm spinning over New Mexico will eventually become a major storm that will ride up the eastern sea board and lead to some holiday travel headaches
The sub tropical jet disturbance will phase with the disturbance diving towards the northern plains, they will likely meet over the SE US over the next 24-48 hours, and what we will have with this phase is a intensifying area of low pressure pulling in a lot of Gulf of Mexico moisture
Now the storm track has shifted west bound
As was a concern I put in my winter forecast there continues to be a strong ridging signal just off the SE US coast, this will help to make the 2 disturbances phase farther west and thus track more inland than originally expected
With a storm track now expected right over the forecast area, most of the forecast area likely wont have to deal with significant wintry precipitation, with that being said it is likely that higher elevation areas like NW NJ/NE PA will start off wintry and end off wintry with some accumulation possible but if this took the coastal route it would have been much more wintry for these areas.
We see the storm forming over the SE later Tuesday , the thing with this storm system is that its expected to be elongated per say as it will be entrained into a frontal system so precipitation will move in well ahead of it and will last for longer once the low passes, during this fram even though the low is way to the south there’s already precipitation filling in over the region
As for precip type, anyone along and SE of I95 will start off as rain and stay mostly if not all rain , for folks just northwest of I95 we could start off as some snow or rain snow mix but a very quick transition to all rain is expected with no accumulation, the higher elevations and NW/NE PA will start off as snow and gradually go to rain , minor accumulation of snow/sleet is possible but given the track even you will change to rain , as the storm is exiting NE PA/NW NJ would end off as snow, again some minor accumulation possible, the rest of the area could end off as a few snow showers later Wednesday but it wont add up to anything.
You can see how elongated it is and with a track along or east of the track this allows a strong SE and Atlantic moisture to become entrained as well so we have a true soaker coming our way , the track would also support very windy conditions especially along the coastal areas with SE winds 20-30 mph with gusts up to 40-50 , if some of our short-range models are correct and the western Atlantic ridge is able to stay strong another area of low pressure would follow behind this one and dump a ton of rainfall ( in the order of 4-6 inches) but im not ready to jump on that idea yet, right now a widespread 1.5-3 inch rainfall event seems fair, some flash flooding possible and there could be isolated power outages between wet ground and strong winds there could be some fallen trees.
Again there will be wintry weather for our NW interior areas but is expected to be relatively light with only minor accumulation of snow and ice, the storm will peak out Wednesday then clear out Wednesday night, thanksgiving will be dry but VERY COLD and VERY WINDY with highs in the mid 20s to low 30s expected and lows returning to the 10s-low 20s.
ill go more in detail tomorrow as we get a slightly better idea of whats going on and to cover any possible changes but at this point I don’t think much will change.